Policy Secure News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2333825

OptionProbability

6 - 7

8 - 9

10 - 11

12 - 15

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.51%chance

257828

OptionVotes

YES

12918

7753

Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?

Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM

23.32%chance

154740

OptionVotes

YES

1813

552

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

44.35%chance

244598

OptionVotes

YES

1120

893

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

YES

1134

954

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

YES

1159

926

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

YES

1838

546

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

142784

OptionProbability

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

100

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

112422

OptionVotes

YES

1824

548

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.47%chance

42166

OptionVotes

YES

1625

615

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

1015

943

Policy Secure News

Prediction markets for Policy Secure

Prediction markets for Policy Secure

Prediction markets for Policy Secure

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

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