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Top stories

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Polymarket

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]

May 4, 6:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

340534039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

70122

10065

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

210357064

OptionProbability

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

Other

98

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.19%chance

5042151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10448

9571

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

Jan 7, 4:06 PMSep 16, 6:00 PM

76.41%chance

397654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

845

Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

May 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.47%chance

377219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10111

3469

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]

Jun 29, 12:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.37%chance

212894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2183

540

Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?

Feb 4, 3:17 AMJan 1, 3:13 AM

79.11%chance

182339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3387

2167

Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?

Sep 24, 4:51 PMSep 24, 4:25 PM

51.82%chance

291903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

964

Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]

Jul 25, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

161339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 4:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.51%chance

19672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

137

When will Polymarket disable permissionless pUSD withdrawals?

May 4, 1:36 PMDec 31, 2:02 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later

33

33

33

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