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Polymarket News

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

5

7 months ago

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

521372427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

167231211

OptionProbability

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

90

6

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.43%chance

3739731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10929

9150

Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?

Jun 12, 3:03 AMJan 3, 4:59 AM

3835414

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later or never

2024

2025

52

23

23

1

1

Will Polymarket launch a stablecoin before 2027?

Jul 22, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.4%chance

2518604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17614

5685

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? [Polymarket]

Mar 11, 5:06 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

39%chance

376790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

800

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45073

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.3%chance

243581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2448

409

Will Polymarket reach $100B in trading volume in 2027?

Aug 16, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.06%chance

122041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

Jan 7, 4:06 PMDec 10, 7:00 PM

61.97%chance

201978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

488

Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?

Sep 24, 4:51 PMSep 24, 4:25 PM

48.77%chance

231457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 4:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.51%chance

19672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

137

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