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Top stories

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Polymarket

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

603511311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

210354538

OptionProbability

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

Other

98

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]

May 4, 6:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.57%chance

333345387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45868

10371

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]

Apr 22, 8:10 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

2.75%chance

226268730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5949

168

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.17%chance

4942146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10443

9576

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]

Jun 15, 1:39 PMJul 14, 11:59 PM

22%chance

10941150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

531

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket]

May 28, 10:49 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

3210080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

695

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

May 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.91%chance

323831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7654

4646

Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?

Feb 4, 3:17 AMJan 1, 3:13 AM

79.11%chance

182339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3387

2167

Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 4:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.51%chance

19672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

137

When will Polymarket disable permissionless pUSD withdrawals?

May 4, 1:36 PMDec 31, 2:02 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later

33

33

33

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