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Top stories

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Polymarket

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

567473481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

210354333

OptionProbability

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

Other

98

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]

Apr 10, 4:26 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

18952184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

802

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]

May 4, 6:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.44%chance

8844658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12857

10390

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.2%chance

4841946

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10243

9763

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31? [Polymarket]

Apr 10, 4:24 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

8333521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

777

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]

Apr 22, 8:10 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

55%chance

4411079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

53

13

9

9

8

8

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

Jan 7, 4:06 PMDec 10, 7:00 PM

70.04%chance

252407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

651

Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?

Sep 24, 4:51 PMSep 24, 4:25 PM

48.77%chance

231457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 4:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.51%chance

19672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

137

When will Polymarket disable permissionless pUSD withdrawals?

May 4, 1:36 PMDec 31, 2:02 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later

33

33

33

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