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Prediction markets for Pop
OptionVotes
2948
339
Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM
25.81%chance
64148
OptionVotes
1695
590
[Metaculus] Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?
Apr 20, 10:26 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM
2.5%chance
143917
OptionVotes
1092
43
US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028
Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
47.66%chance
52539
OptionVotes
10480
9542
Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
14.49%chance
131723
OptionVotes
2430
412
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
2958
Will pop-up shops become the dominant hub of offline commerce by 2026?
Jan 28, 4:27 AMFeb 4, 4:59 AM
7.41%chance
11910
OptionVotes
1800
877
CyberTrucks popping up in various countries by mid 2025 - where will there be sightings
Apr 5, 6:36 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM
9799
OptionProbability
100
100
100
95
73
69
66
66
59
58
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
Will Manifold ever release a major front end design update with an accompanying “what’s new” summary pop up?
Mar 7, 2:32 AMMar 14, 3:59 AM
84.4%chance
13322
OptionVotes
362
107
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
Mar 1, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
239
Will Jell-o Pudding Pops be revived and sold again at some point before EOY 2029?
Dec 8, 7:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.71%chance
324
OptionVotes
94
86
OptionVotes
100
100