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This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)

Sep 30, 10:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.22%chance

4422932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2621

895

New country buys Bitcoin in 2025?

Jan 15, 1:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.99%chance

151645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

900

Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)

Jan 24, 12:52 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

29.8%chance

9958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

651

Will my friend’s altcoin portfolio outperform bitcoin between Halloween 2024 to Halloween 2025?

Oct 29, 2:26 AMNov 1, 4:59 AM

26.05%chance

8793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1685

593

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

872

Who will become the 'lijsttrekker' of NSC for the 2025 Dutch elections?

Jun 17, 9:07 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

4626

OptionProbability

Eddy van Hijum

Diederik Boomsma

Other

97

2

1

Michael's To-Read List

Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9347

OptionProbability

[Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

Advanced Portfolio Management

Option Volatility & Pricing

Njal's Saga

The Bostonians

The History of the Peloponnesian War

Middlemarch

Winds of Winter, lmao

The Histories

Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

Children of Time

Romance of the Three Kingdoms

88

85

83

83

76

76

76

69

66

64

63

50

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

3302

OptionProbability

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q3 2025

26

18

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

1

Who will I loan Mana to in 2025?

May 1, 5:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4231

OptionProbability

Robincvgr

Spiderduckpig

Tumbles

Someone at Manifest (during Manifest)

@evan

100

100

100

68

26

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Apr 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.25%chance

8121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

110

Which portfolios will users like?

Jul 14, 2:03 AMJul 14, 6:59 AM

00

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