OptionProbability
HCAST - METR
CAIS Remote Labor Index
Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)
ARC-AGI (any version)
GDPval https://openai.com/index/gdpval
PaperBench https://openai.com/index/paperbench
Opinion poll of Manifold userbase
Wozniak Coffee Test (requires controlling a robot)
Build, debug and test until its of sufficient quality, a complex piece of software like a mobile app including a backend service
Predict the output of an arbitrary set of NAND gates and inputs
Beating Pokemon games
Manually rearrange and overlap 100 random images in an image editor (with no other kinds of edits) to create a recognizable portrait
85
75
69
65
57
50
29
25
17
16
14
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2731
366
No thinner than anything in 2025 ( ≥ 71.5 mm)
Skinnier than any current iPhone ( < 71.5 mm, iPhone 17)
As skinny as an iPhone mini ( ≤ 64.2mm)
As skinny as an iphone 4/5 ( ≤ 58.6 mm)
53
32
11
4
457
51
186
54
