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Prediction markets for PoS

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.94%chance

157585652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17654

1109

Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?

Jan 22, 4:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.57%chance

58187127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44937

7944

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.28%chance

75107935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47945

2368

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.59%chance

17476866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19402

2677

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.02%chance

10841949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11019

9048

Will Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.85%chance

17541523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7241

1026

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

39%chance

9112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1767

574

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.7%chance

429653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11488

8479

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

Aug 6, 1:16 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14914

OptionProbability

No TAC, keep the queries

Keep the TAC, keep the queries

No TAC, lose the queries

Keep the TAC, lose the queries

38

34

17

11

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

914

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

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