POW News

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.15%chance

316855132

OptionVotes

YES

119785

2471

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

239344763

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

32.81%chance

6762104

OptionVotes

YES

1027

949

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Jun 10, 2:47 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

12337998

OptionProbability

6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office

5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028

2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated

7. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another

3. Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed

8. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule

Other

1. Trump doesn't win in 2024

4. Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

19937419

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.37%chance

563948

OptionProbability

YES

1600

882

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

10867

9202

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

YES

1013

926

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

55.01%chance

221310

OptionVotes

YES

11058

9043

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Will the US hold at least 100 Chinese POW through 2029

Aug 28, 6:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.23%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

145

115

Will the PRC hold at least 100 American POW, ever, through 2029

Aug 28, 6:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.29%chance

691

OptionVotes

YES

195

150

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Prediction markets for POW

Prediction markets for POW

Prediction markets for POW

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

When will fusion power become viable?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will the US hold at least 100 Chinese POW through 2029

Will the PRC hold at least 100 American POW, ever, through 2029

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