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Prediction markets for Pre

[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

1310334

OptionProbability

1.40 - 1.50°C

1.30 - 1.40°C

1.50 - 1.60°C

1.20 - 1.30°C

1.60 - 1.70°C

Below 1.2°C

1.70 - 1.75°C

Above 1.75°C

45

34

10

4

3

2

1

1

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.26%chance

101490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

947

Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?

Sep 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 7:13 PM

43.58%chance

51132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

879

Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2030?

Sep 29, 5:25 PMApr 1, 4:59 AM

60.38%chance

16965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1268

767

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.92%chance

19812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

970

Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?

Sep 1, 6:48 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

72.49%chance

4775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1623

616

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

Will Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?

Sep 9, 3:36 PMSep 8, 6:38 PM

64%chance

5354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1333

750

Will there be scientific consensus that Polynesians made Pre-Columbian contact with South Americans?

May 13, 5:16 AMMay 20, 5:11 AM

43.75%chance

7303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

882

Will federal legislation pre-empt CA SB 53 by Nov 2028?

Oct 1, 5:23 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

51.48%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

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