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Prediction Markets News

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5462592

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

IB / ForecastEx

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

64

25

5

2

2

1

1

1

Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027

Aug 2, 12:38 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

5131809

OptionProbability

Meta

Amazon

SpaceXAi

Microsoft

Reddit

Bytedance

OpenAI

Anthropic

Discord

Google

62

14

14

13

12

10

6

6

6

5

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.27%chance

22525311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3094

1992

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.75%chance

5415399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4013

1279

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.2%chance

2910792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16061

5454

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

100

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

31541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4299

1739

Will anyone on any prediction market betting before 2030 be revealed to be a time traveler before 2060

Oct 16, 3:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.66%chance

9773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

98

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