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Prediction markets for Prediction Markets

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

4844364

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

51

26

10

7

3

1

1

1

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.3%chance

3523380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2385

405

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.61%chance

21822671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4174

576

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Oct 3, 3:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.16%chance

15915166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2245

369

Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?

Mar 7, 7:01 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

77.5%chance

857590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1760

172

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.24%chance

316832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

1618

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

183705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10462

9632

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25%chance

312946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3295

2155

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?

Jan 4, 4:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.53%chance

24972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

677

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

45.33%chance

20544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

557

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