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Prediction Markets News

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5350079

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

63

23

5

5

3

1

1

1

Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027

Aug 2, 12:38 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

4931457

OptionProbability

Meta

Amazon

Microsoft

SpaceXAi

Reddit

Bytedance

OpenAI

Anthropic

Discord

Google

63

15

14

14

13

10

6

6

6

5

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.86%chance

22425227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3142

1870

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Oct 3, 3:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.25%chance

17220053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1750

525

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.11%chance

4712055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4651

1180

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.55%chance

234541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10073

9882

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

100

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.28%chance

3973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3731

2066

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