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Prediction markets for Prediction Markets

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5145634

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

51

30

7

7

4

1

1

1

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.41%chance

21924219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3670

983

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Oct 3, 3:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.26%chance

16418067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2084

410

Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?

Dec 29, 3:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31%chance

7217647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

444

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.22%chance

808788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

712

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.25%chance

357419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3130

1464

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.21%chance

204208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10135

9805

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

100

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

45.7%chance

21549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

551

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