Prediction Markets News

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5350079

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027

Aug 2, 12:38 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

5131809

OptionProbability

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.06%chance

22525287

OptionVotes

YES

3118

1930

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.08%chance

4812070

OptionVotes

YES

4661

1179

Which prediction markets will MNX list before November?

Sep 22, 10:13 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

2211009

OptionProbability

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2028?

Labor: US labor force participation in December 2027?

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?

something about METR time horizon

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

YES

1027

830

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

YES

1872

534

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.55%chance

234541

OptionVotes

YES

10073

9882

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

4041

1942

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

2052

100

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

1201

926

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

31541

OptionVotes

YES

4299

1739

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Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Which prediction markets will MNX list before November?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

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