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Prediction markets for Prediction Markets

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5247734

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

57

26

6

6

3

1

1

1

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.66%chance

22324701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3367

1404

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.48%chance

3623537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2327

418

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Oct 3, 3:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.75%chance

16818331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2348

347

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.35%chance

4611855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4880

1150

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.11%chance

234441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10009

9973

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

100

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

2923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3681

2100

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