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Top stories

Google Adds ‘Preferred Sources’ Tool to Let Users Rank Publishers

Google Adds ‘Preferred Sources’ Tool to Let Users Rank Publishers

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Preferred Sources

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8217548

OptionProbability

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Paul Le Roux

13

1

1

1

1

1

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2012007

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

0 - 9.99

30 - 39.99

50 - 59.99

20 - 29.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

16

12

12

11

10

7

2

2

1

1

OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?

Apr 17, 10:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.09%chance

225804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

Nuclear power production increases in USA 2023-2033

Oct 16, 7:47 AMJan 1, 5:01 AM

78%chance

445114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

691

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.29%chance

263713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

461

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Aug 20, 3:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

583509

OptionProbability

Before 2035

2035 - 2045

2045 - 2060

After the year 2060

Never - Another energy source will be preferred even if technically and commercially viable.

Other

44

24

21

8

3

0

Will the GTA VI leaker be publicly identified before GTA VI releases?

Aug 22, 6:26 AMNov 19, 11:59 PM

13.49%chance

252657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2532

395

Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?

Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

87.43%chance

241992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2685

386

Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?

Jul 15, 2:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

4519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

933

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Will Jujutsu Kaisen chapters 223–236 get a theatrical release (movie) by EOY 2029?

Sep 19, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

1200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

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