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Top stories

Google Adds ‘Preferred Sources’ Tool to Let Users Rank Publishers

Google Adds ‘Preferred Sources’ Tool to Let Users Rank Publishers

Authors

10

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Preferred Sources

Tesla completes 20,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026?

May 1, 12:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.6%chance

2515573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

789

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

179634

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

30 - 39.99

0 - 9.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

19

13

11

11

10

5

2

1

1

1

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

489136

OptionProbability

Hal Finney

Paul Le Roux

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Adam Back

Dorian Nakamoto

22

13

10

5

5

2

Kamala Harris leading 2028 Democratic primary polls at end of 2025?

May 6, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.1%chance

528270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1390

719

Tesla completes 100,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026?

May 1, 12:10 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

31.83%chance

296945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1464

683

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

243103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Aug 20, 3:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

513076

OptionProbability

Before 2035

2035 - 2045

2045 - 2060

After the year 2060

Never - Another energy source will be preferred even if technically and commercially viable.

Other

50

19

18

10

3

0

Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?

Jul 2, 8:15 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

162059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

834

OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?

Apr 17, 10:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.09%chance

13917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1728

579

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.05%chance

11895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

767

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

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