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Prediction markets for Presidential Debate

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

62%chance

14468018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1393

626

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

94.43%chance

354967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3900

193

Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?

Dec 30, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.2%chance

263129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

287

Will any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?

Aug 25, 9:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.94%chance

62020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3010

332

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

Will Robot workers be a major topic during the 2028 presidential debates in the United States?

Nov 10, 12:14 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

161050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

656

Who will be in the first 2028 Democratic Party presidential debate?

Nov 7, 6:40 AMNov 5, 2:59 PM

19749

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Pete Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Josh Shapiro

Gretchen Whitmer

Andy Beshear

Wes Moore

Kamala Harris

Mark Cuban

Raphael Warnock

Tim Walz

Joe Biden

71

64

52

47

43

34

34

16

10

10

8

1

How many times will AI be mentioned in the first Presidential Debate 2028?

Dec 12, 9:54 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

7426

OptionProbability

1-10

11-20

0 (or no debate)

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-75

76-100

>100

25

16

14

8

8

8

8

8

6

Who will be in the first 2028 Republican Party presidential debate?

Nov 10, 10:29 AMNov 4, 2:59 PM

4275

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Mike Pence

Mitt Romney

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

75

8

8

5

5

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?

Jan 19, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6144

OptionProbability

Luis Inácio Lula da Silva

Romeu Zema

Flávio Bolsonaro

Tarcísio Freitas

91

76

50

24

Will embryo selection be mentioned during a U.S. presidential debate before 2030?

Jul 30, 2:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.78%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

68

Did you watch >50% of the recent Presidential Debate? | Do you plan on voting in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Jun 30, 4:48 AM

170

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