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Prediction markets for Press Conference

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

429894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.42%chance

147406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

968

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

454728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

809

Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, before Jan 20 2029?

Mar 6, 9:37 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

10.2%chance

92131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2967

337

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

191794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

869

Will Trump publicly convert to Judaism by the end of his second term?

Dec 17, 11:30 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

4.92%chance

111439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

440

23

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.29%chance

11794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

790

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.95%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will the Trump Class Battleship be built or will the US Navy determine it is wasteful and unnecessary for modern warfare

Dec 24, 2:37 AMDec 24, 2:34 AM

13.98%chance

16358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 17, 10:04 PMSep 16, 6:25 PM

10.4%chance

4193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

42

Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 12:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.78%chance

1175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

85

If you had to pick one, what did you think of the Trump press conference?

Sep 2, 8:11 PM

200

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