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Prediction markets for Press Conference

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.77%chance

197853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

997

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.78%chance

464841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

964

918

Will Half‑Life 3 be officially announced in 2026?

Dec 18, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.97%chance

553257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.5%chance

213083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2251

445

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

112664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2765

218

Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, before Jan 20 2029?

Mar 6, 9:37 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

10.2%chance

92131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2967

337

Will Trump publicly convert to Judaism by the end of his second term?

Dec 17, 11:30 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

7.57%chance

131509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

29

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

61.02%chance

21913

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.95%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will an AI model generate a major novel physics theory that is experimentally confirmed by the end of 2037?

Sep 9, 11:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.08%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

67

Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 12:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.78%chance

1175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

85

If you had to pick one, what did you think of the Trump press conference?

Sep 2, 8:11 PM

200

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