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Prediction markets for Press Conference

Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?

Mar 12, 3:18 PMMar 31, 3:14 PM

2.24%chance

12054949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6612

151

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.35%chance

444648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

753

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.49%chance

153583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

647

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.19%chance

92576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

754

Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, before Jan 20 2029?

Mar 6, 9:37 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

10.2%chance

92131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2967

337

Trump mentions Riemann hypothesis during 2nd term how many times?

Jun 9, 10:59 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

111545

OptionProbability

0

1-500

501 - 1000

Above 1000

98

1

0

0

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

9564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

970

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.95%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will someone be executed for drug dealing during Trump's term?

Feb 21, 8:01 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

12.16%chance

12247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

37

Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 12:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.78%chance

1175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

85

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

If you had to pick one, what did you think of the Trump press conference?

Sep 2, 8:11 PM

200

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