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Prediction markets for Press Conference

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Which Coaches Are Out In The Mid-American Conference? Coaching Carousel 2025-26

Jun 6, 9:30 PMMar 15, 11:59 PM

32763

OptionProbability

Ohio - Brian Smith

Toledo - Jason Candle

Western Michigan - Lance Taylor

UMass - Joe Harasymiak

Buffalo - Pete Lembo

Central Michigan - Matt Drinkall

Miami (OH) - Chuck Martin

Northern Illinois - Thomas Hammock

Eastern Michigan - Chris Creighton

Akron - Joe Moorhead

Ball State - Mike Uremovich

Bowling Green - Eddie George

Kent State - Mark Carney

99

99

39

28

25

25

25

25

24

21

21

20

20

Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, before Jan 20 2029?

Mar 6, 9:37 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

10.2%chance

92131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2967

337

Will Trump admonish Poland for opening an investigation into the Epstein files?

Feb 3, 9:50 PMMar 4, 11:59 PM

12.03%chance

72030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2704

370

Which Coaches Are Out In The Sun Belt Conference? Coaching Carousel 2025-26

Jun 6, 9:29 PMMar 15, 11:59 PM

31476

OptionProbability

Coastal Carolina - Tim Beck

James Madison - Bob Chesney

Southern Miss - Charles Huff

Appalachian State - Dowell Loggains

Georgia Southern - Clay Helton

Georgia State - Dell McGee

Marshall - Tony Gibson

Old Dominion - Ricky Rahne

Arkansas State - Butch Jones

Louisiana - Michael Desormeaux

South Alabama - Major Applewhite

Texas State - G. J. Kinne

Louisiana–Monroe - Bryant Vincent

Troy - Gerad Parker

100

100

100

40

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

35

32

Will Half‑Life 3 be officially announced in 2026?

Dec 18, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

261266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.66%chance

5984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

857

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.95%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.67%chance

6313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

921

Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 12:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.78%chance

1175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

85

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

If you had to pick one, what did you think of the Trump press conference?

Sep 2, 8:11 PM

200

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