Prevail News

Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

Nov 20, 6:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13%chance

607996

OptionVotes

YES

1408

874

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Aug 4, 9:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

121955

OptionProbability

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

YES

1010

851

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

1497

789

Will the Supreme Court rule Maine can't limit PAC contributions?

Aug 12, 12:22 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.7%chance

7837

OptionVotes

YES

1006

994

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

YES

1027

859

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Dec 8, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14560

OptionProbability

[Consumer Privacy] A.T. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Copyright] Sancton v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Copyright] Chabon v. OpenAI, Inc. (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Silverman v. OpenAI, Inc. (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Libel] Walters v. OpenAI, L.L.C. (Ga. Super. Ct. 2023)

[Copyright] P.M. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

1282

780

In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero.

Oct 5, 4:50 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

49.8%chance

7152

OptionVotes

YES

204

193

Will Sakee (皇昶枢 MULA SAKEE) and Asen (艾志恒) reconcile or collaborate again before the end of 2027?

Nov 5, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Will the State of California prevail in their lawsuit against Exxon Mobil for false advertising about plastic recycling?

Sep 23, 6:50 PMOct 1, 6:59 AM

52.4%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will global far-right global regime cause prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist before 2400?

Oct 13, 5:41 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

5.37%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

130

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Prediction markets for Prevail

Prediction markets for Prevail

Prediction markets for Prevail

Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Will the Supreme Court rule Maine can't limit PAC contributions?

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero.

Will Sakee (皇昶枢 MULA SAKEE) and Asen (艾志恒) reconcile or collaborate again before the end of 2027?

Will the State of California prevail in their lawsuit against Exxon Mobil for false advertising about plastic recycling?

Will global far-right global regime cause prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist before 2400?

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