Prevail News

Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

Nov 20, 6:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.95%chance

597684

OptionVotes

YES

1095

929

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Aug 4, 9:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

121955

OptionProbability

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

YES

1010

851

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

1497

789

Will the Supreme Court rule Maine can't limit PAC contributions?

Aug 12, 12:22 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.7%chance

7837

OptionVotes

YES

1006

994

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

YES

1027

859

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

1282

780

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Dec 8, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13348

OptionProbability

[Consumer Privacy] A.T. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Copyright] Sancton v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Copyright] Chabon v. OpenAI, Inc. (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Silverman v. OpenAI, Inc. (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Libel] Walters v. OpenAI, L.L.C. (Ga. Super. Ct. 2023)

[Copyright] P.M. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

Years of Lead 2: European Boogaloo ? Before 2030 (M500 subsidy)

Sep 30, 8:07 PMApr 1, 9:59 PM

50.67%chance

7290

OptionVotes

YES

676

622

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

Sep 20, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.92%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

161

In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero.

Oct 5, 4:50 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

49.8%chance

7152

OptionVotes

YES

204

193

Will the State of California prevail in their lawsuit against Exxon Mobil for false advertising about plastic recycling?

Sep 23, 6:50 PMOct 1, 6:59 AM

52.4%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

105

Prevail News

Prediction markets for Prevail

Prediction markets for Prevail

Prediction markets for Prevail

Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Will the Supreme Court rule Maine can't limit PAC contributions?

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Years of Lead 2: European Boogaloo ? Before 2030 (M500 subsidy)

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero.

Will the State of California prevail in their lawsuit against Exxon Mobil for false advertising about plastic recycling?

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