Prevail News

Will there still be a bi-directional center bike lane on Valencia Street in San Francisco at the end of 2025?

May 21, 3:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

8287

121

Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

Nov 20, 6:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.06%chance

587659

OptionVotes

YES

1227

904

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

YES

1010

851

After the Israel-Hamas war is over, would the average Israeli believe it was a mistake?

Nov 6, 5:30 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.86%chance

261125

OptionVotes

YES

1848

848

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Aug 4, 9:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

10662

OptionProbability

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

YES

1027

859

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.5%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

1177

900

Oppositional Position Market 2

May 1, 3:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

5525

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

1282

780

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Dec 8, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11238

OptionProbability

[Consumer Privacy] A.T. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Libel] Walters v. OpenAI, L.L.C. (Ga. Super. Ct. 2023)

In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero.

Oct 5, 4:50 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

49.8%chance

7152

OptionVotes

YES

204

193

Will the State of California prevail in their lawsuit against Exxon Mobil for false advertising about plastic recycling?

Sep 23, 6:50 PMOct 1, 6:59 AM

52.4%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

105

Prevail News

Prediction markets for Prevail

Prediction markets for Prevail

Prediction markets for Prevail

Will there still be a bi-directional center bike lane on Valencia Street in San Francisco at the end of 2025?

Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

After the Israel-Hamas war is over, would the average Israeli believe it was a mistake?

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Oppositional Position Market 2

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero.

Will the State of California prevail in their lawsuit against Exxon Mobil for false advertising about plastic recycling?

Latest stories