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Prediction markets for Prime

On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

Sep 23, 8:43 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

213297276

OptionProbability

2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

2026-06-30 / June 30, 2026

2026-07-31 / 31st July 2026

2027-12-31 / 31st December 2027

2028-12-31 / 31st December 2028

2029-12-31 / 31st December 2029

2030-12-31 / 31st December 2030

2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026

100

98

37

1

1

1

1

0

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.65%chance

235209218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

34108

48

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Apr 28, 10:00 PMApr 28, 9:54 PM

7847126

OptionProbability

Mark Carney

Pierre Poilievre

Other

Doug Ford

Jason Kenney

Avi Lewis

Justin Trudeau

Heather McPherson

Caroline Mulroney

68

16

10

3

1

1

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.73%chance

6220395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5494

4791

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.33%chance

2914051

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10477

9544

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.82%chance

618579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4106

1481

Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?

Nov 9, 3:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.74%chance

243868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4373

102

Will Bibi still be the prime minister of Israel in 2027?

Aug 7, 11:44 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

80.01%chance

442729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1882

201

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.74%chance

41826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7692

5323

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Dec 17, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.21%chance

251715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

480

In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?

Nov 2, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

18950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

778

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3110

OptionProbability

2080 or later

2040s

2030s

2020s

2050s

2060s

2070s

29

23

17

11

7

7

6

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