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Prediction markets for Prime

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Apr 28, 10:00 PMApr 28, 9:54 PM

7847126

OptionProbability

Mark Carney

Pierre Poilievre

Other

Doug Ford

Jason Kenney

Avi Lewis

Justin Trudeau

Heather McPherson

Caroline Mulroney

68

16

10

3

1

1

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.55%chance

6521031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5639

4686

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.81%chance

3515418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10448

9571

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

618678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

1484

UK Prime Minister after Andy Burnham

Mar 25, 2:29 PMDec 31, 2:17 PM

266048

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Other

Kemi Badenoch

Wes Streeting

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Sadiq Khan

Rachel Reeves

David Lammy

Robert Jenrick

David Miliband

Tom Tugendhat

Rupert Lowe

Shabana Mahmood

Yvette Cooper

Andy Burnham

Ed Miliband

Zack Polanski

Lucy Powell

Alistair Carns

John Healey

Suella Braverman

25

15

13

8

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will Bibi still be the prime minister of Israel in 2027?

Aug 7, 11:44 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

74.44%chance

474795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1711

251

Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?

Nov 9, 3:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.74%chance

243868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4373

102

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.48%chance

41926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7792

5300

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Dec 17, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.53%chance

261765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1499

450

In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?

Nov 2, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

18950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

778

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3110

OptionProbability

2080 or later

2040s

2030s

2020s

2050s

2060s

2070s

29

23

17

11

7

7

6

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