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Prediction markets for Prime

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Apr 28, 10:00 PMApr 28, 9:54 PM

7847222

OptionProbability

Mark Carney

Pierre Poilievre

Other

Doug Ford

Jason Kenney

Avi Lewis

Justin Trudeau

Heather McPherson

Caroline Mulroney

67

18

9

3

1

1

0

0

0

Will any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.87%chance

6345691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16390

6101

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.39%chance

9743326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6054

4410

UK Prime Minister after Andy Burnham

Mar 25, 2:29 PMDec 31, 2:17 PM

309418

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Kemi Badenoch

Other

Wes Streeting

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Zack Polanski

David Lammy

Robert Jenrick

David Miliband

Tom Tugendhat

Rupert Lowe

Shabana Mahmood

Yvette Cooper

Sadiq Khan

Rachel Reeves

Ed Davey

Andy Burnham

Ed Miliband

Lucy Powell

Alistair Carns

John Healey

Keir Starmer

Suella Braverman

23

18

13

7

5

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

618678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

1484

Will Bibi still be the prime minister of Israel in 2027?

Aug 7, 11:44 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

72.77%chance

567261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1668

267

Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?

Nov 9, 3:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.59%chance

254081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4421

99

Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2040?

Apr 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 8:00 AM

61.07%chance

1322744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2961

959

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

17.74%chance

52226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8092

5234

Will the prime factors of RSA-1024 be known by 2030?

Nov 13, 8:42 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.29%chance

322155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

437

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Dec 17, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.53%chance

261765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1499

450

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3110

OptionProbability

2080 or later

2040s

2030s

2020s

2050s

2060s

2070s

29

23

17

11

7

7

6

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