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Prediction markets for Prime

On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

Sep 23, 8:43 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

10193981

OptionProbability

2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

2026-06-30 / June 30, 2026

2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026

2027-12-31 / 31st December 2027

2028-12-31 / 31st December 2028

2029-12-31 / 31st December 2029

2030-12-31 / 31st December 2030

100

64

35

22

16

8

6

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Apr 28, 10:00 PMApr 28, 9:54 PM

7847084

OptionProbability

Mark Carney

Pierre Poilievre

Other

Doug Ford

Heather McPherson

Jason Kenney

Caroline Mulroney

Avi Lewis

Justin Trudeau

67

16

9

3

1

1

1

1

0

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.57%chance

13438372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7664

1871

Will Viktor Orban remain Hungary's prime minister after the 2026 elections?

Aug 7, 11:51 AMApr 1, 9:59 PM

37.69%chance

17526281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1606

385

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6722441

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2028

Other

2030

2024

2025

61

17

8

6

5

2

0

0

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.38%chance

2111436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11140

8977

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.82%chance

618579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4106

1481

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.07%chance

294356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5575

4732

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.75%chance

224093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Dec 17, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.21%chance

251715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

480

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7442

5382

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3110

OptionProbability

2080 or later

2040s

2030s

2020s

2050s

2060s

2070s

29

23

17

11

7

7

6

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