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Prediction markets for Prime

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6260929

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Nigel Farage

Other

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Boris Johnson

Richard Tice

Rupert Lowe

Ed Davey

Idris Elba

34

26

19

6

5

4

3

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

70.97%chance

3234362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1564

640

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Apr 28, 10:00 PMApr 28, 9:54 PM

5927537

OptionProbability

Mark Carney

Other

Pierre Poilievre

Doug Ford

Justin Trudeau

42

40

14

4

0

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?

Jan 22, 6:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.66%chance

4720282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

24783

2497

Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03?

Nov 3, 6:08 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

25%chance

14019563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3527

720

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

3310615

OptionProbability

2029

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2030

2024

41

19

11

11

10

4

3

0

Will Viktor Orban remain Hungary's prime minister after the 2026 elections?

Aug 7, 11:51 AMApr 1, 9:59 PM

21.13%chance

608501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2022

214

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.98%chance

598328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3890

1487

Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?

Jun 4, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

243611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

850

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

21.91%chance

31111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

2495

Will Dick Cheney live to see a new largest Prime number? (Last one - Oct 21 2024)

Oct 21, 3:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73%chance

12220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1275

1017

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

260

OptionProbability

2080 or later

2030s

2040s

2020s

2050s

2060s

2070s

25

24

19

15

6

6

5

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