Prime Video News

Will a new social media app surpass TikTok in monthly users before 2027?”

Mar 21, 8:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.4%chance

104505

OptionVotes

YES

466

Will Amazon buy Anthropic in 2026?

Jan 13, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

122145

OptionVotes

YES

1377

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

202003

OptionProbability

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

100

How many minutes of Harry Potter 2026 series will be streamed in the US in the first year?

Feb 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171082

OptionProbability

>5bn

>8bn

>10bn

>16bn

> 20bn

> 30bn

Will Anysphere/Cursor make a play into the repository hosting space in 2026?

Jan 13, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.21%chance

8824

OptionVotes

YES

359

Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu get a pardon from President Isaac Herzog?

Nov 30, 11:59 AMDec 31, 11:57 AM

19.43%chance

18488

OptionVotes

YES

204

Which top streaming service will be first to lose the streaming wars?

Jan 13, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14372

OptionProbability

Paramount+

Peacock

Hulu

Apple TV+

Max

Disney+

Amazon Prime Video

Netflix

Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?

Dec 25, 5:18 PMSep 15, 3:59 AM

18.43%chance

7260

OptionVotes

YES

210

Will there be a trailer for Lars of the Stars before 2027?

Dec 13, 2:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.53%chance

4110

OptionVotes

YES

167

Will a major streaming service adapt A Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge into a television series by 01/01/2032?

Nov 28, 3:18 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

356

OptionProbability

No.

Yes: Netflix

Yes: Amazon Prime Video

Yes: Apple TV+

Yes: Disney+

Yes: HBO Max

Yes: Hulu

Yes: Paramount+

Yes: Peacock

Other

Prime Video News

Prediction markets for Prime Video

Prediction markets for Prime Video

Prediction markets for Prime Video

Will a new social media app surpass TikTok in monthly users before 2027?”

Will Amazon buy Anthropic in 2026?

Specific Events in the Iran War

How many minutes of Harry Potter 2026 series will be streamed in the US in the first year?

Will Anysphere/Cursor make a play into the repository hosting space in 2026?

Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu get a pardon from President Isaac Herzog?

Which top streaming service will be first to lose the streaming wars?

Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?

Will there be a trailer for Lars of the Stars before 2027?

Will a major streaming service adapt A Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge into a television series by 01/01/2032?

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