Prime Video News

Will a new social media app surpass TikTok in monthly users before 2027?”

Mar 21, 8:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.51%chance

104498

OptionVotes

YES

351

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

161494

OptionProbability

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

How many minutes of Harry Potter 2026 series will be streamed in the US in the first year?

Feb 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171082

OptionProbability

>5bn

>8bn

>10bn

>16bn

> 20bn

> 30bn

Will Amazon buy Anthropic in 2026?

Jan 13, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.82%chance

8965

OptionVotes

YES

624

Will Anysphere/Cursor make a play into the repository hosting space in 2026?

Jan 13, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.62%chance

7681

OptionVotes

YES

216

Which top streaming service will be first to lose the streaming wars?

Jan 13, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14372

OptionProbability

Paramount+

Peacock

Hulu

Apple TV+

Max

Disney+

Amazon Prime Video

Netflix

Is Trump going to shake Beniamin Netanyahu's hand before March 31st 2026?

Feb 24, 4:20 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

25.45%chance

13352

OptionVotes

YES

171

Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu get a pardon from President Isaac Herzog?

Nov 30, 11:59 AMDec 31, 11:57 AM

55%chance

14345

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will there be a trailer for Lars of the Stars before 2027?

Dec 13, 2:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

80%chance

3100

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?

Dec 25, 5:18 PMSep 15, 3:59 AM

73.27%chance

386

OptionVotes

YES

166

Will a major streaming service adapt A Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge into a television series by 01/01/2032?

Nov 28, 3:18 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

356

OptionProbability

No.

Yes: Netflix

Yes: Amazon Prime Video

Yes: Apple TV+

Yes: Disney+

Yes: HBO Max

Yes: Hulu

Yes: Paramount+

Yes: Peacock

Other

Prime Video News

Prediction markets for Prime Video

Prediction markets for Prime Video

Prediction markets for Prime Video

Will a new social media app surpass TikTok in monthly users before 2027?”

Specific Events in the Iran War

How many minutes of Harry Potter 2026 series will be streamed in the US in the first year?

Will Amazon buy Anthropic in 2026?

Will Anysphere/Cursor make a play into the repository hosting space in 2026?

Which top streaming service will be first to lose the streaming wars?

Is Trump going to shake Beniamin Netanyahu's hand before March 31st 2026?

Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu get a pardon from President Isaac Herzog?

Will there be a trailer for Lars of the Stars before 2027?

Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?

Will a major streaming service adapt A Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge into a television series by 01/01/2032?

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