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Prediction markets for Private Beta

GPT 5.6 released by…?

May 18, 3:17 AMDec 31, 2:14 AM

6148617

OptionProbability

11.59pm ET December 31 2026

11.59pm ET July 31 2026

11.59pm ET July 23 2026

11.59pm ET July 15 2026

11.59pm ET July 7 2026

11.59pm ET June 30 2026

11.59pm ET May 31 2026

11.59pm ET June 7 2026

11.59pm ET June 15 2026

11.59pm ET June 22 2026

95

90

77

46

14

3

0

0

0

0

Which month will Anthropic release Sonnet 5?

Feb 5, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4215929

OptionProbability

July 2026 or later

June 2026

Never released

February 2026

April 2026

May 2026

Other

March 2026

55

39

3

1

1

1

1

0

Will OpenAI release a cross-platform web browser by the end of 2026?

Nov 22, 10:01 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

93.86%chance

167151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3910

256

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Feb 2, 3:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

162564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

835

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96%chance

221132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

20

Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?

Jan 25, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

16847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

333

30

Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

Jun 21, 3:22 AMSep 1, 12:00 AM

19.12%chance

18265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

57

Will Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027?

May 12, 7:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

12.59%chance

574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

93

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