Probably Nothing News

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597859

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

@Quroe

@Celene

Pat Scott @Stralor

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

2009

482

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

10400

7578

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

4312125

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Tom hutchcroft

Antoine Song

Alex Smith

Ewain Gwynne

Amol Aggarwal

Jeremy Hahn

Alexander Dunn

Marcelo Campos

Mehtaab Sawhney

Cristiana De Filippis

Ruixiang Zhang

Levent Alpöge

Hong Wang

Dor Minzer

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

David Budden

Resolves to BTC/EUR at random time

Mar 26, 6:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.6%chance

219799

OptionProbability

YES

1487

823

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72755

OptionProbability

Other

Marcelo Campos

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

43.59%chance

111577

OptionVotes

YES

11377

8790

Will Donald Trump finally get sentenced to the Big House (or worse) after he leaves office in 2029?

Mar 31, 1:26 PMAug 9, 11:59 PM

19.45%chance

61175

OptionVotes

YES

2035

491

How to increase productivity?

Nov 28, 2:38 PMSep 15, 9:59 PM

2600

OptionProbability

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67487fe7-c8b8-8013-910f-722cce8032b7

[[Title]]: [[Link to a comment on this post explaining what to do]]

Where will I live in February 2027?

Nov 5, 10:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

5356

OptionProbability

Berkeley, CA

Menlo Park, CA

Washington, DC

Other

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

Will male-chick-culling be illegal in the EU by the end of 2035?

Feb 28, 5:01 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

60.88%chance

12354

OptionVotes

YES

292

153

As a school teacher, will Tumbles get in trouble for his online activities? (by 2029)

Aug 25, 10:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.72%chance

12337

OptionVotes

YES

109

Probably Nothing News

Prediction markets for Probably Nothing

Prediction markets for Probably Nothing

Prediction markets for Probably Nothing

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Resolves to BTC/EUR at random time

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Will Donald Trump finally get sentenced to the Big House (or worse) after he leaves office in 2029?

How to increase productivity?

Where will I live in February 2027?

Will male-chick-culling be illegal in the EU by the end of 2035?

As a school teacher, will Tumbles get in trouble for his online activities? (by 2029)

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