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Prediction markets for Probably Nothing

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14134332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Resolves to BTC/EUR at random time

Mar 26, 6:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.96%chance

209789

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1637

813

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

308683

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Amol Aggarwal

Alex Smith

Jeremy Hahn

Ewain Gwynne

Alexander Dunn

Ruixiang Zhang

Hong Wang

Dor Minzer

Marcelo Campos

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Mehtaab Sawhney

Cristiana De Filippis

David Budden

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

41

19

7

6

6

5

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72755

OptionProbability

Other

Marcelo Campos

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

97

2

1

0

How to increase productivity?

Nov 28, 2:38 PMSep 15, 9:59 PM

2600

OptionProbability

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67487fe7-c8b8-8013-910f-722cce8032b7

[[Title]]: [[Link to a comment on this post explaining what to do]]

78

37

Will male-chick-culling be illegal in the EU by the end of 2035?

Feb 28, 5:01 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

60.88%chance

12354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

153

Will my boyfriend regret not going for a recommended ultrasound?

Aug 15, 9:28 AMAug 15, 9:23 AM

19.84%chance

13256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

As a school teacher, will Tumbles get in trouble for his online activities? (by 2029)

Aug 25, 10:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

10217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Clippers/Kawhi/Ballmer punishment after NBA Investigation

Sep 5, 5:39 PMSep 5, 5:21 PM

2166

OptionProbability

None (full exoneration)

Medium (~1 first round pick, ~1M)

Small (no first round picks)

Large (multiple 1sts, up to 10M)

Minor (a small fine, no picks)

Massive (ban/void, similar to Joe Smith)

30

21

17

13

11

7

Say something nice about somebody (Auto-Bounty)

Apr 20, 12:36 AM

00

Does Tesla really rig their in-car range estimates? [M$500 bounty]

Jul 27, 2:30 PMJul 28, 6:59 AM

00

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