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Prediction markets for Probably Nothing

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.23%chance

4751212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

481

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

83.97%chance

12427823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11866

9323

Resolves to BTC/EUR at random time

Mar 26, 6:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.61%chance

188649

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1035

862

Will Manifold implement N/A shares by EOY 2025?

Sep 1, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.9%chance

255976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4404

227

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

142982

OptionProbability

Will Sawin

Other

Alex Smith

Ewain Gwynne

Jeremy Hahn

Amol Aggarwal

Dor Minzer

Hong Wang

Marcelo Campos

Mehtaab Sawhney

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

22

22

17

15

13

5

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62516

OptionProbability

Other

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

99

1

0

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Dec 30, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.16%chance

18716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

How to increase productivity?

Nov 28, 2:38 PMSep 15, 9:59 PM

2600

OptionProbability

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67487fe7-c8b8-8013-910f-722cce8032b7

[[Title]]: [[Link to a comment on this post explaining what to do]]

78

37

If Manifold adds the ability to place stop orders, will the people who asked for them regret it within a month?

Nov 5, 4:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.95%chance

15544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

725

Will male-chick-culling be illegal in the EU by the end of 2035?

Feb 28, 5:01 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

63.76%chance

11344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

309

143

Will my boyfriend regret not going for a recommended ultrasound?

Aug 15, 9:28 AMAug 15, 9:23 AM

25.19%chance

9172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

58

What will Tumbles rate the Project Hail Mary movie out of 10?

Aug 1, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:51 AM

65%chance

774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

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