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Prediction markets for Probably Nothing

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3140

335

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

68%chance

12929843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11121

5741

Will Manifold implement N/A shares by EOY 2025?

Sep 1, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.79%chance

279118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7413

135

Resolves to BTC/EUR at random time

Mar 26, 6:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.53%chance

198659

OptionProbability

YES

NO

946

872

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

173969

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Ewain Gwynne

Amol Aggarwal

Jeremy Hahn

Alex Smith

Alexander Dunn

Ruixiang Zhang

Marcelo Campos

Hong Wang

Dor Minzer

Mehtaab Sawhney

Cristiana De Filippis

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

31

21

9

8

8

7

5

4

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Dec 30, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.4%chance

202779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2935

341

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72735

OptionProbability

Other

Marcelo Campos

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

96

3

1

0

Should I just chill and NOT make a dog run (Cash prizes!!! maybe)

Nov 9, 11:45 PMJul 1, 10:36 PM

83.45%chance

101982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2246

445

How to increase productivity?

Nov 28, 2:38 PMSep 15, 9:59 PM

2600

OptionProbability

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67487fe7-c8b8-8013-910f-722cce8032b7

[[Title]]: [[Link to a comment on this post explaining what to do]]

78

37

If Manifold adds the ability to place stop orders, will the people who asked for them regret it within a month?

Nov 5, 4:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.95%chance

15544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

725

Will male-chick-culling be illegal in the EU by the end of 2035?

Feb 28, 5:01 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

63.76%chance

11344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

309

143

Will my boyfriend regret not going for a recommended ultrasound?

Aug 15, 9:28 AMAug 15, 9:23 AM

19.84%chance

13256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

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