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Probably Nothing News

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6154714

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

Pat Scott @Stralor

@vi

@retr0id

@Quroe

@Bandors

@8my41

@Cy

@Eternal

@astroblob

@zhengkyl

@AlirezaAfshan

@Celene

@AtharvPatil

50

32

27

27

25

21

21

15

15

14

14

12

11

9

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Resolves to BTC/EUR at random time

Mar 26, 6:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.6%chance

219799

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1487

823

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

389445

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Alex Smith

Antoine Song

Tom hutchcroft

Amol Aggarwal

Ewain Gwynne

Hong Wang

Jeremy Hahn

Dor Minzer

Marcelo Campos

Mehtaab Sawhney

Alexander Dunn

Cristiana De Filippis

Ruixiang Zhang

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

David Budden

34

17

11

10

9

5

5

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Where will I live in October 2026?

Apr 24, 6:30 PMOct 1, 12:00 AM

132938

OptionProbability

Menlo Park, CA

Other

Berkeley, CA

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

Oakland, CA

San Jose, CA

Warren's Gore, VT

28

21

13

13

13

8

3

0

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72755

OptionProbability

Other

Marcelo Campos

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

97

2

1

0

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

44.24%chance

101427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11227

8907

Clippers/Kawhi/Ballmer punishment after NBA Investigation

Sep 5, 5:39 PMSep 5, 5:21 PM

31316

OptionProbability

Large (multiple 1sts, up to 10M)

Medium (~1 first round pick, ~1M)

Massive (ban/void, similar to Joe Smith)

Small (no first round picks)

Minor (a small fine, no picks)

None (full exoneration)

29

24

17

15

10

5

Will Donald Trump finally get sentenced to the Big House (or worse) after he leaves office in 2029?

Mar 31, 1:26 PMAug 9, 11:59 PM

19.45%chance

61175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2035

491

Will my boyfriend regret not going for a recommended ultrasound?

Aug 15, 9:28 AMAug 15, 9:23 AM

30.41%chance

24574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will male-chick-culling be illegal in the EU by the end of 2035?

Feb 28, 5:01 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

60.88%chance

12354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

153

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