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Prediction markets for Probably Nothing

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14134335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Resolves to BTC/EUR at random time

Mar 26, 6:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.6%chance

219799

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1487

823

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

359129

OptionProbability

Other

Antoine Song

Will Sawin

Tom hutchcroft

Marcelo Campos

Cristiana De Filippis

Amol Aggarwal

Ewain Gwynne

Alex Smith

Jeremy Hahn

Hong Wang

Dor Minzer

Alexander Dunn

Ruixiang Zhang

Mehtaab Sawhney

David Budden

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

40

11

10

6

5

5

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72755

OptionProbability

Other

Marcelo Campos

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

97

2

1

0

Where will I live in October 2026?

Apr 24, 6:30 PMOct 1, 12:00 AM

61834

OptionProbability

Other

Menlo Park, CA

Berkeley, CA

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

Oakland, CA

Warren's Gore, VT

San Jose, CA

24

16

15

15

12

11

4

4

Will Donald Trump finally get sentenced to the Big House (or worse) after he leaves office in 2029?

Mar 31, 1:26 PMAug 9, 11:59 PM

19.45%chance

61175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2035

491

How to increase productivity?

Nov 28, 2:38 PMSep 15, 9:59 PM

2600

OptionProbability

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67487fe7-c8b8-8013-910f-722cce8032b7

[[Title]]: [[Link to a comment on this post explaining what to do]]

78

37

Will male-chick-culling be illegal in the EU by the end of 2035?

Feb 28, 5:01 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

60.88%chance

12354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

153

Will my boyfriend regret not going for a recommended ultrasound?

Aug 15, 9:28 AMAug 15, 9:23 AM

19.84%chance

13256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Clippers/Kawhi/Ballmer punishment after NBA Investigation

Sep 5, 5:39 PMSep 5, 5:21 PM

2166

OptionProbability

None (full exoneration)

Medium (~1 first round pick, ~1M)

Small (no first round picks)

Large (multiple 1sts, up to 10M)

Minor (a small fine, no picks)

Massive (ban/void, similar to Joe Smith)

30

21

17

13

11

7

Will I do something interesting this week according to me

May 6, 4:13 AMMay 11, 4:12 AM

63.02%chance

885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

77

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