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Prediction markets for Probably Nothing

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

4852336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

336

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

13533614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Resolves to BTC/EUR at random time

Mar 26, 6:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.53%chance

198659

OptionProbability

YES

NO

946

872

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

278636

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Amol Aggarwal

Alex Smith

Ewain Gwynne

Jeremy Hahn

Alexander Dunn

Ruixiang Zhang

Hong Wang

Dor Minzer

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Marcelo Campos

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

Mehtaab Sawhney

Cristiana De Filippis

David Budden

24

20

12

9

8

8

4

4

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72755

OptionProbability

Other

Marcelo Campos

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

97

2

1

0

What rating will Tumbles give the Project Hail Mary movie? (threshold version)

Jan 8, 3:03 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

132754

OptionProbability

1 or higher

2 or higher

3 or higher

4 or higher

5 or higher

6 or higher

7 or higher

8 or higher

9 or higher

10

99

97

93

85

81

66

51

36

20

12

How to increase productivity?

Nov 28, 2:38 PMSep 15, 9:59 PM

2600

OptionProbability

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67487fe7-c8b8-8013-910f-722cce8032b7

[[Title]]: [[Link to a comment on this post explaining what to do]]

78

37

Will male-chick-culling be illegal in the EU by the end of 2035?

Feb 28, 5:01 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

63.76%chance

11344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

309

143

Will my boyfriend regret not going for a recommended ultrasound?

Aug 15, 9:28 AMAug 15, 9:23 AM

19.84%chance

13256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

As a school teacher, will Tumbles get in trouble for his online activities? (by 2029)

Aug 25, 10:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

10217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Clippers/Kawhi/Ballmer punishment after NBA Investigation

Sep 5, 5:39 PMSep 5, 5:21 PM

2166

OptionProbability

None (full exoneration)

Medium (~1 first round pick, ~1M)

Small (no first round picks)

Large (multiple 1sts, up to 10M)

Minor (a small fine, no picks)

Massive (ban/void, similar to Joe Smith)

30

21

17

13

11

7

What will Tumbles rate the Project Hail Mary movie out of 10?

Aug 1, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:51 AM

70.91%chance

8104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

64

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