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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.81%chance

459334149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2689

2519

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56%chance

177212945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

3063

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.6%chance

18053773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1970

1202

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.34%chance

7433886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.82%chance

5726974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114717

87171

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Jan 25, 12:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.88%chance

21526898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5086

982

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13461

7504

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

878668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

437735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346711

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Coal

Geothermal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Fusion

Other

33

16

15

11

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.87%chance

331384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

1771

Is it possible to have low load docker hosting + domain name + stag & prod pipe for less than 10$/month nowadays ?

Apr 29, 1:33 PM

60

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