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Prediction markets for Prod

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42%chance

597582583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3222

1451

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.15%chance

277452880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

2822

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75%chance

18253982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

1170

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.8%chance

6122391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13939

7262

Will CMOC Group's annual cobalt production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

79.99%chance

810694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19996

5001

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.14%chance

429785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10747

1429

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

949025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2749

369

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.23%chance

54582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13560

7375

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

53.7%chance

61819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10769

9286

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

151816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Is it possible to have low load docker hosting + domain name + stag & prod pipe for less than 10$/month nowadays ?

Apr 29, 1:33 PM

60

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