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Prediction markets for Prod

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

619656532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5617

4107

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

90.69%chance

336646889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13142

3393

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143218

70492

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.5%chance

6422808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13402

7535

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

76.13%chance

1611407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

25950

9022

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

46.5%chance

53075

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10725

9324

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

55.02%chance

52551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11060

9042

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

49.68%chance

42140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10064

9936

Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

47.33%chance

3551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10549

9480

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

48.84%chance

2275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10235

9770

Will "Guardian Angels: LLM Personalization for Prod..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 21, 5:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Is it possible to have low load docker hosting + domain name + stag & prod pipe for less than 10$/month nowadays ?

Apr 29, 1:33 PM

70

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