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Top stories

FX’s ‘Alien: Earth’ Hits 9 Million Viewers, Tops Hulu Charts

FX’s ‘Alien: Earth’ Hits 9 Million Viewers, Tops Hulu Charts

Authors

12

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Prodigy

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.58%chance

103162323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108745

17863

Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040?

Jun 4, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.47%chance

163704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

508

Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?

Feb 18, 9:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.43%chance

182103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

Will "Tomas Bjartur: The Last Prodigy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 14, 4:30 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.07%chance

41793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2215

879

Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 5:41 PMJan 1, 5:36 PM

9656

OptionProbability

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Javokhir Sindarov

Vincent Keymer

Arjun Erigaisi

Praggnanandhaa R

Gukesh D

Alireza Firouzja

Hans Niemann

Nihal Sarin

Awonder Liang

25

25

17

7

6

6

6

3

2

2

When will Abhimanyu Mishra enter the world's top 10 in the live ratings?

Sep 10, 1:01 PMJan 1, 1:54 PM

3455

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030

Not top 10 by EOY 2032

2031

2032

2026 (or 2025)

17

14

14

14

14

10

9

7

Did Kuina die from falling down the stairs?

Jan 10, 3:24 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

84.09%chance

6149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

43

Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa ever become World Chess Champion?

Apr 12, 2:30 PMAug 11, 6:59 AM

28.85%chance

491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

105

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