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Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

10.39%chance

384595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2936

341

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.33%chance

263140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2445

409

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.09%chance

51528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

733

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Feb 6, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

25.46%chance

31825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

812

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

[Metaculus] Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

Oct 7, 12:41 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM

4.39%chance

7399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

500

75

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

976

NYC government-run grocery stores exist on January 1, 2030?

Jun 25, 3:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.4%chance

7238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Jan 14, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.61%chance

8111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

58

Will CRWV270115C00140000 expire in-the-money?

Jan 20, 3:03 PMJan 15, 4:00 PM

40.47%chance

274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

[Metaculus] Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?

Oct 12, 10:34 PMJan 2, 10:39 PM

32%chance

226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

73

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