Product Marketing Manager News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543852

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

10.39%chance

384595

OptionVotes

YES

2936

341

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.33%chance

263140

OptionVotes

YES

2445

409

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.13%chance

61694

OptionVotes

YES

1367

732

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Feb 6, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

25.46%chance

31825

OptionVotes

YES

1038

812

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

1675

819

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

5530

OptionVotes

YES

300

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

YES

1024

976

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Jan 14, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.66%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

135

[Metaculus] Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

Oct 12, 10:34 PMJan 2, 10:34 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

155

137

Product Marketing Manager News

Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

[Metaculus] Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

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