Product Marketing Manager News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947448

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Tesla (props)

Mar 7, 11:01 AMMar 7, 11:01 AM

225952

OptionProbability

Cortex 2 AI cluster operational by August 1, 2026

Optimus robots deployed in Tesla factories (>10 units) by Dec 31, 2026

Cybercab production exceeds 500/month by Sep 30, 2026

Marques Brownlee shaves his head on camera by December 31, 2026

Tesla merges with SpaceX by December 31, 2026

Terafab fabricates at least one chip in 2026

Unsupervised FSD releases to non-employees in US by June 30, 2026

TSLA stock closes above $500 before April 1, 2026

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

8%chance

425051

OptionVotes

YES

3391

295

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

YES

1159

926

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.24%chance

273149

OptionVotes

YES

2455

407

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.46%chance

82969

OptionVotes

YES

2642

379

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Feb 6, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

25.46%chance

31825

OptionVotes

YES

1038

812

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

1675

819

[Metaculus] Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

Oct 7, 12:41 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM

4.39%chance

7399

OptionVotes

YES

500

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

1351

740

Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?

May 30, 2:07 AMJan 11, 11:59 PM

41.68%chance

2212

OptionVotes

YES

1183

845

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.51%chance

3170

OptionVotes

YES

1072

933

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Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

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Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Tesla (props)

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

[Metaculus] Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

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