Product Marketing Manager News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will Bitcoin hit $100.000 again before July 1, 2026?

Feb 22, 4:35 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

284909

OptionVotes

YES

690

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

10.02%chance

394655

OptionVotes

YES

2996

334

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

YES

1159

926

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.33%chance

263140

OptionVotes

YES

2445

409

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.13%chance

61694

OptionVotes

YES

1367

732

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Feb 6, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

25.46%chance

31825

OptionVotes

YES

1038

812

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

1675

819

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.1%chance

7546

OptionVotes

YES

316

[Metaculus] Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

Oct 7, 12:41 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM

4.39%chance

7399

OptionVotes

YES

500

Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?

May 30, 2:07 AMJan 11, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

1200

833

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.51%chance

3170

OptionVotes

YES

1072

933

Product Marketing Manager News

Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

Prediction markets for Product Marketing Manager

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will Bitcoin hit $100.000 again before July 1, 2026?

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

[Metaculus] Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

Latest stories