Product of the Day News

[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

Feb 28, 7:37 AMMay 31, 3:59 AM

28571863

OptionProbability

Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours

Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days

Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days

Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck

The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days

>= 10 American soldiers are killed

A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days

Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days

Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days

Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel

Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days

Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel

>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed

Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon

Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel

Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war

A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects

Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days

Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader

Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs

Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel

100+ civilian deaths in Israel

A nuclear weapon is used offensively

QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days

Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours

Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days

100

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

7748

3856

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

1073

935

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

1026

977

Will a Super Smash Bros movie be announced as In Production by Mario Day 2028? (Mar 10)

Dec 21, 4:45 PMMar 11, 4:59 AM

17.48%chance

181066

OptionVotes

YES

2052

657

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Nov 13, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.51%chance

6976

OptionVotes

YES

1052

951

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

YES

1049

927

Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?

Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

17386

OptionProbability

Increase domestic energy production by 3 million barrel of oil equivalents per day

Reduce budget deficit to 3% of GDP

Real GDP growth of 3% per annum

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM

51.19%chance

3241

OptionVotes

YES

1024

976

Best Engineering-Focused A.I. News Source (Permanent)

Apr 4, 4:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6108

OptionProbability

Other

Product Hunt, Filtered for A.I. and Last 90 Days https://www.producthunt.com/search?q=AI&lastLaunchedAfter=90%3Adays

Hacker News

Massachusetts Institute of technology

Twitter

Perfect Day products receive EU approval by EOY2026?

Jun 29, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.48%chance

266

OptionVotes

YES

148

Product of the Day News

Prediction markets for Product of the Day

Prediction markets for Product of the Day

Prediction markets for Product of the Day

[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Will a Super Smash Bros movie be announced as In Production by Mario Day 2028? (Mar 10)

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?

100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

Best Engineering-Focused A.I. News Source (Permanent)

Perfect Day products receive EU approval by EOY2026?

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