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Prediction markets for Product of the Month

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.13%chance

16933724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

1246

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

Will CMOC Group's annual cobalt production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

79.76%chance

910919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19851

5038

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.08%chance

293839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13028

8892

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

53.88%chance

61859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10809

9252

Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 230 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 AMMay 31, 12:04 AM

62.55%chance

71523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Will Jinbaobao's trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production fall below 80 kt on August 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:08 PMAug 31, 9:06 PM

23.11%chance

2835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1824

548

Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 250 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 AMMay 31, 12:04 AM

61.7%chance

6696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 270 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 AMMay 31, 12:04 AM

18.24%chance

3571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

47

Lynas reports at least one month production loss in 2026?

Nov 25, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.98%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

61

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