Production Design News

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 4, 7:40 PM

10255149

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

"The Lootbox Lies" - Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

100

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

87.72%chance

718879

OptionVotes

YES

26413

2905

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.62%chance

317578

OptionVotes

YES

8332

3592

Which Oscar nominations will "The Odyssey" receive?

Jul 21, 1:21 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

356754

OptionProbability

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Film Editing

Best Cinematography

Best Sound

Best Original Score

Best Actor - Matt Damon

Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway

Best Costume Design

Best Visual Effects

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Casting

Best Production Design

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Best Supporting Actor - Robert Pattinson

Best Supporting Actress - Samantha Morton

Best Supporting Actor - Tom Holland

Best Supporting Actor - Himesh Patel

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

YES

3137

320

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

10497

2690

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.29%chance

211908

OptionVotes

YES

1448

691

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

151810

OptionVotes

YES

2581

389

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.07%chance

271122

OptionVotes

YES

994

954

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Dec 4, 6:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7301

OptionProbability

A political “anti-Clanker” movement emerges, with a “made without AI” designation on media and products.

AI proficiency becomes a graduation requirement in at least one major state university system (likely the UCs)

At least one major Hollywood studio makes a U-turn on AI, spurring a wave of usage on big budget films.

Billboard Top 40 and the NYT Bestseller List both have several debuts later revealed to be AI.

AI generated photos become normalized for headshots, dating app pics, Christmas cards, etc.

At least 10 percent of Fortune 500 companies mandate AI voice interviews for intern and entry level roles.

Voice dictation saturates engineering with over 50 percent usage in startups and big tech, and spreads outside Silicon Valley.

Driving a car yourself becomes widely viewed as negligent in markets where Waymo and FSD are live.

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

Production Design News

Prediction markets for Production Design

Prediction markets for Production Design

Prediction markets for Production Design

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Which Oscar nominations will "The Odyssey" receive?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will Apple Emissions end at?

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