Production Design News

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 10, 7:40 PM

8132709

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

Crane Hexes - by Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

7748

3856

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

52.98%chance

222672

OptionVotes

YES

1512

1469

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.24%chance

251062

OptionVotes

YES

1018

894

Will Tesla release a Cybercab with a Steering Wheel?

Nov 4, 5:45 PMDec 31, 5:33 PM

55.86%chance

3325

OptionVotes

YES

1125

889

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Dec 4, 6:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4228

OptionProbability

A political “anti-Clanker” movement emerges, with a “made without AI” designation on media and products.

AI proficiency becomes a graduation requirement in at least one major state university system (likely the UCs)

At least one major Hollywood studio makes a U-turn on AI, spurring a wave of usage on big budget films.

Billboard Top 40 and the NYT Bestseller List both have several debuts later revealed to be AI.

Voice dictation saturates engineering with over 50 percent usage in startups and big tech, and spreads outside Silicon Valley.

AI generated photos become normalized for headshots, dating app pics, Christmas cards, etc.

At least 10 percent of Fortune 500 companies mandate AI voice interviews for intern and entry level roles.

Driving a car yourself becomes widely viewed as negligent in markets where Waymo and FSD are live.

Prediction markets for Production Design

Prediction markets for Production Design

Prediction markets for Production Design

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Will Tesla release a Cybercab with a Steering Wheel?

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Will Manifold have a formally designated Chief Product Officer by EOY 2025?

Will the Phase 3 Trials of Olpasiran be a Success?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

South Africa's vanadium production exceeds 10,000 tonnes in 2027?

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