Production Design News

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 4, 7:40 PM

10356200

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

"The Lootbox Lies" - Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

100

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

81.82%chance

824290

OptionVotes

YES

21552

3763

Which Oscar nominations will "The Odyssey" receive?

Jul 21, 1:21 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

388985

OptionProbability

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Film Editing

Best Cinematography

Best Original Score

Best Actor - Matt Damon

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Sound

Best Casting

Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway

Best Costume Design

Best Visual Effects

Best Supporting Actress - Samantha Morton

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Best Production Design

Best Supporting Actor - John Leguizamo

Best Original Song

Best Supporting Actor - Robert Pattinson

Best Supporting Actor - Himesh Patel

Best Supporting Actor - Tom Holland

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

327878

OptionVotes

YES

8632

3470

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

YES

3092

324

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

10497

2690

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.1%chance

281123

OptionVotes

YES

993

955

Will Apple skip sequential numbering and not name its next flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”?

Jan 9, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.89%chance

12930

OptionVotes

YES

1407

256

Will Tesla release a Cybercab with a Steering Wheel?

Nov 4, 5:45 PMDec 31, 5:33 PM

49.24%chance

10902

OptionVotes

YES

1015

985

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Dec 4, 6:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7301

OptionProbability

A political “anti-Clanker” movement emerges, with a “made without AI” designation on media and products.

AI proficiency becomes a graduation requirement in at least one major state university system (likely the UCs)

At least one major Hollywood studio makes a U-turn on AI, spurring a wave of usage on big budget films.

Billboard Top 40 and the NYT Bestseller List both have several debuts later revealed to be AI.

AI generated photos become normalized for headshots, dating app pics, Christmas cards, etc.

At least 10 percent of Fortune 500 companies mandate AI voice interviews for intern and entry level roles.

Voice dictation saturates engineering with over 50 percent usage in startups and big tech, and spreads outside Silicon Valley.

Driving a car yourself becomes widely viewed as negligent in markets where Waymo and FSD are live.

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

Production Design News

Prediction markets for Production Design

Prediction markets for Production Design

Prediction markets for Production Design

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Which Oscar nominations will "The Odyssey" receive?

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Will Apple skip sequential numbering and not name its next flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”?

Will Tesla release a Cybercab with a Steering Wheel?

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will Apple Emissions end at?

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