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Prediction markets for Production Design

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will OpenAI announce a web browser by the end of August?

Jul 10, 1:26 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

40.55%chance

243083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

826

Will Google emoji kitchen include combos for the strong arm emoji 💪 by mid 2026?

Jan 2, 8:16 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

18.21%chance

312860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2119

472

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

46.41%chance

212381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

1276

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76%chance

23912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

940

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

17528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

880

Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?

Sep 10, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

17377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

943

Will the Phase 2 Trials of Lepodisiran be a Success?

May 19, 12:05 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Will Manifold have a formally designated Chief Product Officer by EOY 2025?

Jan 10, 2:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.71%chance

6123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

45

Will the Phase 3 Trials of Olpasiran be a Success?

May 20, 5:18 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

55.04%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

904

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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