Productivity News
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Prediction markets for Productivity
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.81%chance
459334149
OptionVotes
2689
2519
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
73.6%chance
18053773
OptionVotes
1970
1202
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.82%chance
5726974
OptionVotes
114717
87171
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
34.31%chance
5717669
OptionVotes
13461
7504
Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025?
Mar 3, 1:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.89%chance
698353
OptionVotes
2013
291
Will US productivity growth be >= 2% (annualized) over the next 5 years?
Oct 7, 6:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
79.31%chance
345173
OptionVotes
2013
732
Will any country implement a tax on meat products due to environmental concerns by the end of 2025? (M$300 subsidy)
Jul 23, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
33.16%chance
552478
OptionVotes
1508
1165
OptionVotes
991
941
Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?
Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
39.87%chance
331384
OptionVotes
2200
1771
Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?
Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
76%chance
23912
OptionVotes
1108
940
Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?
Aug 8, 12:43 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
62.49%chance
9596
OptionVotes
1291
775
Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2027?
Sep 1, 4:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.87%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1146
1064