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Prediction markets for Productivity
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43%chance
592573784
OptionVotes
3255
1407
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
67%chance
8456997
OptionVotes
143166
70518
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
75%chance
18253982
OptionVotes
2063
1170
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
32.8%chance
6122391
OptionVotes
13939
7262
Will CMOC Group's annual cobalt production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?
Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM
80.2%chance
710662
OptionVotes
20125
4969
Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?
Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
12.14%chance
429785
OptionVotes
10747
1429
Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?
Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM
35.23%chance
54582
OptionVotes
13560
7375
Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?
Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM
53.33%chance
51740
OptionVotes
10690
9355
Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 60 kt on May 31, 2026?
Mar 2, 9:07 PMMay 31, 9:06 PM
14.3%chance
11450
OptionVotes
2450
334
Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?
Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
38.89%chance
341434
OptionVotes
2250
1738
Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?
Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
70.56%chance
261072
OptionVotes
1014
904
OptionVotes
1591
629