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Prediction markets for Progression

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3832368

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

90

80

78

74

67

65

45

28

26

23

23

20

5

1

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.65%chance

282743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

804

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.23%chance

211854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

942

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Aug 17, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.62%chance

281791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

916

Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.36%chance

201696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

903

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

15936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

1047

Will it be discovered by the end of the decade that in 2022 major AGI progress was made but it was kept secret for more than two years to maximize its usefulness?

Jan 24, 8:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

14472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

931

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

75.94%chance

16401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

966

If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?

Aug 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

78.97%chance

17335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

946

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 12, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.82%chance

2269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

347

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