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Prediction markets for Progression

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3531186

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

The bet will be annulled

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

88

83

78

74

72

65

45

28

26

25

23

14

6

1

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.65%chance

282743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

804

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.27%chance

201837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

943

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Aug 17, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.62%chance

281791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

916

Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.07%chance

191646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

913

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

15936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

1047

Will it be discovered by the end of the decade that in 2022 major AGI progress was made but it was kept secret for more than two years to maximize its usefulness?

Jan 24, 8:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

14472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

931

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.41%chance

15395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

986

If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?

Aug 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

78.75%chance

16325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

936

Will "A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 25, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.13%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

991

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