DeepNewz, mobile.

People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story detail view.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story list view.

Search

For You

Progression News

Footer

AI

AI Fundraising
AI Modeling
AI Products

Business

Automobile
Company Earnings
Economics
Law
Prediction Markets
Real Estate
Rumors
Stocks
VC

Crypto

Airdrops
Blockchains
CBDCs
DeFi
Hacks
Markets
Memecoin
Mining
NFT
Regulation

Culture

Anime
Celebrities
Crime
Education
Movies
Music
Obituary
TV
Video Games

Environment

Climate
Energy
Natural Disasters
Natural Resources
Sustainability

Politics

DOGE
Epstein Files
Executive Orders
Tariffs
US Domestic Policy
US Elections
US Foreign Policy
US Gov Appointments
US Judiciary
US Legislation
War

Science

Archeology
Bio
Health
Math
Pharma
Physics
Space

Sports

Boxing
Chess
Cricket
Golf
Hockey
MLB
NBA
NCAA
NFL
Olympics
PGA
Poker
Racing
Rugby
Soccer
Tennis
UFC

Tech

AR-VR
Fintech
Infosec
IoT
Metaverse
Policy
Robotics
Smart Home
Software
Startups
Wearables

United States

Arizona
Boston
California
Chicago
Colorado
Detroit
Florida
Georgia
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Seattle
Texas
Utah
Washington DC

World

Terms of Service

WhatsApp YouTube X

© 2026 DeepNFTValue, Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction markets for Progression

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

4033889

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

92

84

80

79

75

67

47

30

27

24

24

23

6

1

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.65%chance

282743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

804

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.23%chance

211854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

942

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Aug 17, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.62%chance

281791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

916

Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.36%chance

201696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

903

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

27.21%chance

16962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

1047

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

75.94%chance

16401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

966

If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?

Aug 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

78.97%chance

17335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

946

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 12, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.82%chance

2269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

347

Will any of these progressives be on the Democratic ticket in 2028

Jul 20, 5:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

17

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

984

Latest stories