Project 2025 News

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

75.11%chance

2811608

OptionVotes

YES

1225

836

Will Kaivu, Atticus and I's current project get accepted to ICML 2025

Jan 23, 6:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.03%chance

511177

OptionVotes

YES

9807

102

Will Elon Musk unveil a cell phone project in development by the end of 2025?

Jun 11, 5:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.37%chance

545751

OptionVotes

YES

2791

358

Will a US Manhattan-like Project for AGI Be Launched In 2025?

Nov 19, 6:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.04%chance

314230

OptionVotes

YES

2288

437

Anthropic's Project Vend profitable by EOY 2025?

Jun 28, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.7%chance

443626

OptionVotes

YES

1372

729

Which of Project 2025's plans come to fruition?

Apr 19, 12:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

311652

OptionProbability

Gutting the Environmental Protection Agency

Gutting the US Department of Justice (DOJ)

Eliminating the Department of Education

Reducing by more than half the US Department of Justice (DOJ) funding

Allow criminal prosecutions for the senders and receivers of abortion pills

abolishing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Eliminating the Department of Commerce

Dismantling the Department of Homeland Security

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will require that "every state report how many abortions take place, at what gestational age of the child, for what reason, the mother's state of residence, and by what method".

Dismantling the FBI

Removing all climate change regulations from 2000 onwards

Implement a Scripture-based system of government whereby "Christ-ordained civil magistrates" exercise authority over the American public

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

1567

420

Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025

Jan 22, 4:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.68%chance

151259

OptionVotes

YES

1435

697

What % will the Project 2025 tracker be at in 2025?

Feb 28, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11525

Will Gabe Newell's new yacht Project Y722 set sail before the end of 2025?

Nov 7, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.86%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

189

Will "How I've run major projects" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 28, 8:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will anyone use the compbio platforms ViaScientific or Bigomics for their Regeneron STS project in 2025?

Jun 14, 8:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Project 2025 News

Prediction markets for Project 2025

Prediction markets for Project 2025

Prediction markets for Project 2025

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Will Kaivu, Atticus and I's current project get accepted to ICML 2025

Will Elon Musk unveil a cell phone project in development by the end of 2025?

Will a US Manhattan-like Project for AGI Be Launched In 2025?

Anthropic's Project Vend profitable by EOY 2025?

Which of Project 2025's plans come to fruition?

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025

What % will the Project 2025 tracker be at in 2025?

Will Gabe Newell's new yacht Project Y722 set sail before the end of 2025?

Will "How I've run major projects" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will anyone use the compbio platforms ViaScientific or Bigomics for their Regeneron STS project in 2025?

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