Project Open News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Does the Q in Q* stand for either Q-Learning or Q-Values

Nov 23, 3:59 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

72.33%chance

352573

OptionVotes

YES

1122

900

What will be true about the person who creates AGI?

May 4, 2:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

401941

OptionProbability

He will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator

He will be male

He will be a citizen of the USA

As of May 2024 he is already a well-known figure in AI

He will be Jewish

AGI will manifest itself from a collection of open-source projects and nobody will really understand 'which human' created it.

He will be balding

He will have attended a Manifest

He will be 30-years-old or younger

He will be transgender

He will have been in space

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.4%chance

9860

OptionVotes

YES

1444

692

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

YES

1008

987

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.43%chance

6662

OptionVotes

YES

1662

602

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

1448

691

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Apr 8, 7:16 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

9496

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google (DeepMind)

xAI

Government / military lab

Open-source community

Another private company

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

1241

805

Will Android still be a Google product in 2035?

Mar 26, 8:56 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

78.67%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

1123

939

Will there be any active synagogues in Dubai in 2035?

Jun 24, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

57.42%chance

7165

OptionVotes

YES

1161

861

Project Open News

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Prediction markets for Project Open

Prediction markets for Project Open

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Does the Q in Q* stand for either Q-Learning or Q-Values

What will be true about the person who creates AGI?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Will Android still be a Google product in 2035?

Will there be any active synagogues in Dubai in 2035?

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