Project Open News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

YES

1142

876

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

Oct 21, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.53%chance

356596

OptionVotes

YES

11161

8960

What will be true about the person who creates AGI?

May 4, 2:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

422122

OptionProbability

He will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator

He will be male

He will be a citizen of the USA

As of May 2024 he is already a well-known figure in AI

He will be Jewish

He will be balding

He will be 30-years-old or younger

AGI will manifest itself from a collection of open-source projects and nobody will really understand 'which human' created it.

He will have attended a Manifest

He will be transgender

He will have been in space

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.93%chance

9910

OptionVotes

YES

1494

669

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

YES

1008

987

Will a new element be discovered before 2030?

Nov 2, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.31%chance

7767

OptionVotes

YES

1243

805

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

14649

OptionVotes

YES

1478

677

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Apr 8, 7:16 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

11521

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google (DeepMind)

xAI

Government / military lab

Open-source community

Another private company

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.48%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

1291

774

Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027?

Aug 8, 11:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.4%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will there be any active synagogues in Dubai in 2035?

Jun 24, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

57.63%chance

7170

OptionVotes

YES

1166

858

Project Open News

Prediction markets for Project Open

Prediction markets for Project Open

Prediction markets for Project Open

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

What will be true about the person who creates AGI?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Will a new element be discovered before 2030?

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027?

Will there be any active synagogues in Dubai in 2035?

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