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Prediction markets for Project Zero

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.95%chance

11853517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1563

640

Will Bitcoin be carbon-neutral by 2030?

Jul 5, 7:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

223199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

402

Will OpenOffice.org be officially declared obsolete/unmaintained/archived by the Apache Foundation in 2024/2025?

Jan 30, 6:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.86%chance

372184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2307

483

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

Will the ECB (deposit facility) interest rate be negative before 2033?

Apr 14, 1:10 AMDec 3, 12:00 PM

16.88%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

334

106

On which of these platforms will I post content in 2025?

Nov 25, 10:12 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7179

OptionProbability

Manifold

Reddit

Effective Altruism Forum / LessWrong

Soundcloud / Spotify

DeviantArt / ArtStation

Substack / a personal website

Xitter / Mastodon / Bluesky

Facebook / Instagram / Threads

YouTube / TikTok

Pornhub / XVideos / OnlyFans / Literotica

100

62

58

58

53

31

29

26

20

20

Will there be Starknet L2 over TON by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 12:53 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

53.61%chance

3176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

98

Will a zkML project get >$10,000 of funding on Manifund by end of 2025?

Sep 21, 3:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.2%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

72

When will we measure the mass of neutrino?

Mar 6, 3:29 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138

OptionProbability

Before 2036

Before 2034

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2026

57

56

54

50

43

34

Will California have a lower GDP per capital than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?

May 1, 12:27 AMJan 18, 8:00 PM

53.93%chance

326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

89

Lighter token launches before December 25, 2025

Nov 11, 4:47 PMDec 25, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

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