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Prediction markets for Projects

"Manhattan Project" for AGI before 2029?

Jun 7, 1:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.53%chance

5011056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

747

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5910001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5814

4759

EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39970

OptionProbability

75.8 - 77.79 %

74 - 75.79 %

77.8 - 79.99 %

71 - 73.99 %

80 - 82.99 %

Other

28

25

23

13

6

5

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?

Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.62%chance

344443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

301

By the end of 2026 will @ian finish our nft project?

Nov 30, 3:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.93%chance

142363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

959

Will the Stargate project work?

Jan 22, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.66%chance

121730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

875

Will The Project be an issue in the 2028 election?

Jun 9, 7:14 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

36.95%chance

321691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

766

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

12318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

938

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

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