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Prediction markets for Prompt

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.4%chance

412611081602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28882

16663

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

293194677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2746

1002

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.48%chance

18377199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2274

1635

will the "AI movie to a prompt" market stay above 65% for a week straight before the end of 2025?

Jan 2, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.97%chance

5342033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6302

359

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129622

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

30

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67%chance

7228275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

968

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57%chance

9121404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

817

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

5819887

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

831

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

76.78%chance

5211858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1818

550

In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?

Mar 2, 7:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.01%chance

524788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2210

976

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Sep 23, 7:41 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

69.4%chance

462730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

824

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

43.94%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10076

9896

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