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Prediction markets for Prompt

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.36%chance

452112383356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27271

17321

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.18%chance

369286789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2761

998

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?

Jul 29, 9:28 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

83.36%chance

9864079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22379

4468

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7629822

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

37

35

28

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7328392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2045?

Sep 27, 4:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

5625664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

939

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

6622180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

919

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.54%chance

9322117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

985

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.83%chance

7512018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

894

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.63%chance

529351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

635

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Sep 23, 7:41 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

69.09%chance

472734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

815

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