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Prediction markets for Prompting

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.35%chance

462613912171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23100

19309

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.81%chance

379314349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3174

879

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.36%chance

18977942

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2632

1370

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7629831

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

37

35

28

13

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7328392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2045?

Sep 27, 4:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

5725914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

939

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.84%chance

6922913

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

834

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.02%chance

9522309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

935

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

6415784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.73%chance

8012924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

844

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.03%chance

5610406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

520

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Sep 23, 7:41 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

77%chance

523091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

956

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