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Prediction markets for Prompting

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.77%chance

435811850993

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28581

16798

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.4%chance

345248425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2062

1303

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129622

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

30

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.8%chance

7328350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

956

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.01%chance

9322087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

955

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70%chance

6421865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

669

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

72.31%chance

5412018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1616

619

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

6411008

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

906

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.63%chance

529351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

635

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 1, 4:00 AM

15.39%chance

468196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Sep 23, 7:41 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

69.4%chance

462730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

824

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