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Prediction markets for Promptly

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.8%chance

389710126728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11150

10061

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79%chance

288174177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3090

899

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.1%chance

18177047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2342

1578

will the "AI movie to a prompt" market stay above 65% for a week straight before the end of 2025?

Jan 2, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.36%chance

5338111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2857

549

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129447

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

32

20

9

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.21%chance

7122484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

960

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

8720969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

776

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

80.06%chance

4911362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2004

499

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.76%chance

519010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

395

In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?

Mar 2, 7:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.25%chance

474078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2121

1122

Will a prompt be discovered that can consistently generate jokes that Manifold finds funny?

Aug 13, 12:00 AMJan 1, 12:54 AM

50.44%chance

233793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

30.41%chance

13988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1513

661

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