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Prediction markets for Promptly

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.85%chance

420011292126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30323

16159

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

319218651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

1260

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.67%chance

18477249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2324

1593

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129622

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

30

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67%chance

7228325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

968

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.29%chance

9121514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

718

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

79.5%chance

5311907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.63%chance

529351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

635

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

637877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

806

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

10.42%chance

325654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

341

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Sep 23, 7:41 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

69.4%chance

462730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

824

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

43.27%chance

12646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10050

9957

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