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Prediction markets for Proof of

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

66.01%chance

12598836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1965

702

Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?

Apr 16, 1:47 PMApr 23, 8:59 PM

10.41%chance

3413595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

924

Could Fermat have had a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?

Jun 21, 5:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

4.64%chance

3110493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3758

678

Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?

Mar 4, 8:53 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

76.59%chance

288447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1610

695

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

79.55%chance

496620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1756

659

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Will the New York Times declare that there is definitive proof of non-Earth-originating life by 2030?

Jul 27, 3:58 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.31%chance

463582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2941

761

Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?

Nov 26, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.4%chance

291803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1898

490

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

321333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

951

Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02?

Nov 2, 8:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

19759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

964

Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?

Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.41%chance

14616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

902

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

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