Proof of Concept News

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75%chance

18253982

OptionVotes

YES

2063

1170

Do LLMs experience qualia?

Jul 20, 1:12 AMJan 1, 2:08 AM

32.22%chance

866938

OptionVotes

YES

290

289

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Dec 19, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

472267

OptionProbability

Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

Provided with a detailed strategy, execute a cyberattack against a hardened target.

When will UK's "BritCard" ID first become available?

Oct 1, 1:26 PMJan 1, 2:22 PM

3930

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

[Metaculus] Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:18 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM

7.48%chance

10567

OptionVotes

YES

1454

873

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

YES

257

192

Will anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?

Nov 30, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.66%chance

6125

OptionVotes

YES

202

If humanity survives this century, what beta will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1st Jan 2024

Jun 13, 11:38 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17%chance

3122

OptionProbability

YES

285

169

When will AI execute most of my research?

Jun 9, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

285

OptionProbability

By Dec 2030

By Mar 2027

By Jun 2027

By Dec 2027

By Dec 2028

By Dec 2029

By Oct 2026

By Dec 2026

More than 50 Geoship Homes before 2029?

Feb 25, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.63%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

129

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

101

If humanity survives this century, what alpha will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1 Jan 2024 (minus one)

Jun 13, 11:45 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.03%chance

OptionProbability

YES

250

Proof of Concept News

Prediction markets for Proof of Concept

Prediction markets for Proof of Concept

Prediction markets for Proof of Concept

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

Do LLMs experience qualia?

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

When will UK's "BritCard" ID first become available?

[Metaculus] Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Will anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?

If humanity survives this century, what beta will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1st Jan 2024

When will AI execute most of my research?

More than 50 Geoship Homes before 2029?

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

If humanity survives this century, what alpha will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1 Jan 2024 (minus one)

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