Proof of Work News

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

19679

5082

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

73.96%chance

203037

OptionVotes

YES

1685

593

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Feb 21, 9:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.93%chance

172868

OptionVotes

YES

2215

451

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

132225

OptionProbability

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

100

Next year will I think that AI is better than me at math?

Dec 21, 4:35 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

66.82%chance

282214

OptionVotes

YES

1419

705

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

YES

1010

851

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

1567

420

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

YES

1208

921

Will Will Smith smith?

Nov 25, 8:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.03%chance

26907

OptionVotes

YES

994

991

Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02?

Nov 2, 8:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

20.22%chance

19644

OptionVotes

YES

1157

933

LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026.

Oct 1, 3:11 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

44%chance

12171

OptionVotes

YES

1006

993

Total market cap of Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies on Jan 1st 2030.

Apr 24, 1:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.48%chance

110

OptionProbability

YES

280

269

Proof of Work News

Prediction markets for Proof of Work

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Prediction markets for Proof of Work

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Next year will I think that AI is better than me at math?

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Will Will Smith smith?

Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02?

LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026.

Total market cap of Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies on Jan 1st 2030.

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