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Top stories

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Authors

19

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Proof

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

66.01%chance

12598836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1965

702

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2818250

OptionProbability

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

<10%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

30

18

15

11

8

6

4

3

2

2

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

79.55%chance

496620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1756

659

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.03%chance

164138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7045

5144

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

321333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

951

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

28.28%chance

291131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1636

647

Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02?

Nov 2, 8:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

19759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

964

Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?

Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.41%chance

14616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

902

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

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