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Top stories

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Authors

19

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Proof

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80%chance

130106735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2642

458

OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?

Apr 2, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.55%chance

14140343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

571

510

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3233729

OptionProbability

<10%

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

84

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.61%chance

1723452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10891

3200

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.47%chance

10719653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1971

727

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

40.23%chance

331551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

845

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.4%chance

341368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

986

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02?

Nov 2, 8:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

19759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

964

Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?

Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.41%chance

14616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

902

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

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