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Proposer Failure News
Prediction markets for Proposer Failure
Prediction markets for Proposer Failure
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Aug 12, 10:19 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
13.75%
chance
40
4548
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2340
252
If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?
Mar 12, 8:49 PM
Jun 20, 7:59 PM
41%
chance
65
4044
Option
Votes
YES
NO
134
89
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%
chance
31
1936
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1629
626
Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?
Dec 31, 8:58 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
55.74%
chance
29
1727
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1057
918
Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?
Nov 11, 11:36 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
60.64%
chance
4
58
Option
Votes
NO
YES
124
81
Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?
Apr 14, 6:53 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
30.7%
chance
2
21
Option
Votes
NO
YES
101
98
Will Jonathan Oppenheim @postquantum win his bet with with @carlorovelli and @quantum_geoff about whether space-time is best described by quantum theory?
Jan 23, 8:57 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
35.32%
chance
3
21
Option
Votes
YES
NO
131
95
Does the MEGA Drive work?
Jun 10, 12:44 AM
May 15, 11:59 AM
45.39%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
110
91
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