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Prediction markets for Protect AI

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3266255

OptionProbability

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Has become law

Not approved by the legislature

57

43

1

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

26.24%chance

589801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6341

4559

Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?

Nov 19, 5:04 AMNov 19, 5:01 AM

37.2%chance

424179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

669

Will the US Supreme Court reaffirm the ruling that generative AI cannot be awarded copyright by end of 2025?

Aug 19, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.67%chance

333251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2574

671

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

251703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

20%chance

121330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

Dec 1, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.11%chance

61147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

Jun 6, 5:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

36.43%chance

15890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.69%chance

10668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

755

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Will any politician be elected on a Luddite platform to protect jobs from AI automation?

Apr 9, 9:44 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

77.92%chance

899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

103

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