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Prediction markets for Protestant

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4569704

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

77

50

0

0

0

We will see a 100k person anti-AI protest before 2030

Feb 18, 3:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.99%chance

19128104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

936

Will 20+ people die in anti-Trump protests in 2025?

Feb 5, 5:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

5710447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

67.6%chance

537244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

692

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.37%chance

796575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2043

965

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

May 23, 1:04 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

86.02%chance

376139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2481

403

Will there be any large-scale protests about content generated by Deep Learning by the end of 2025?

Dec 10, 5:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

505555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1941

522

Will a U.S. military service member kill a U.S. citizen protester before 2026?

Jun 11, 10:40 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

23.76%chance

291962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

558

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Oct 12, 8:49 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

35.54%chance

201798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

852

Will organizers and leaders of protests against Donald Trump in the summer of 2025 be arrested and face federal changes?

Apr 11, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

10950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

655

Major protest against automation/AI dev. by 2028?

Dec 27, 1:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

71.06%chance

23738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

884

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

957

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