Protocol Points News

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

49.21%chance

3611603

OptionVotes

YES

10159

9844

When will Bryan Johnson die?

Jan 7, 6:36 PMMar 4, 2:59 AM

209987

OptionProbability

Before 2300

Before 2200

Before 2100

Before 2090

Before 2080

Before 2070

Before 2060

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2026

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

5%chance

292528

OptionVotes

YES

436

Will METR publish an 80% task horizon of at least 16 hours for a pre-2028 AI model release?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92.37%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

3500

434

Will file transfer over the internet be solved before 2040?

Jul 1, 8:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58%chance

311278

OptionVotes

YES

118

will trump be assasinated in 2026

Feb 28, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

181196

OptionVotes

YES

280

Will a pre-2028 AI model release beat the Epoch general ECI record by at least 9 points?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.38%chance

2850

OptionVotes

YES

1850

857

Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?

Jan 20, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.2%chance

10421

OptionVotes

YES

1071

271

Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?

Jun 19, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.15%chance

8112

OptionVotes

YES

108

Protocol Points News

Prediction markets for Protocol Points

Prediction markets for Protocol Points

Prediction markets for Protocol Points

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

When will Bryan Johnson die?

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

will trump be assasinated in US?

Will METR publish an 80% task horizon of at least 16 hours for a pre-2028 AI model release?

Will file transfer over the internet be solved before 2040?

will trump be assasinated in 2026

Will a pre-2028 AI model release beat the Epoch general ECI record by at least 9 points?

Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?

Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?

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