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Prediction markets for Provisions Program

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

TN-1 Status for Canadian Software Engineers

May 9, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:18 PM

69.28%chance

9705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3545

2647

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

4122

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

48

26

8

6

5

3

3

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

74.59%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

964

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