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Prediction markets for Proxy

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.04%chance

967737048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10126

9776

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

14.99%chance

14969486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2334

1409

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10119

734

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.06%chance

556617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

872

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

10.42%chance

325654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

341

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11500

8696

Will my proximity chat app reach 1,000 messages per week by 2026-03-01?

Dec 21, 8:16 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.75%chance

7136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Will we send a spacecraft/probe or Jose Luis ricon to the proxima centauri/alpha centauri system by 2065?

Apr 16, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.36%chance

6133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

171

Will an AI system legally act as a healthcare proxy anywhere in the US by 2032?

Nov 27, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

93

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

51%chance

37

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

May 2, 1:02 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What is the best single financial market proxy for which party wins the White House in 2024?

Mar 1, 1:48 AM

00

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