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Prediction markets for Proxy

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.63%chance

947615039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10662

9276

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

20.85%chance

13356459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

1543

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Apr 25, 2:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.51%chance

14027140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4793

842

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10119

734

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.49%chance

465652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

14.78%chance

1285354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

1387

Will Ukraine become a proxy war between North Korea and South Korea by 2026?

Oct 24, 4:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.85%chance

17306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

35

Will we send a spacecraft/probe or Jose Luis ricon to the proxima centauri/alpha centauri system by 2065?

Apr 16, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.36%chance

6133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

171

Will an AI system legally act as a healthcare proxy anywhere in the US by 2032?

Nov 27, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

93

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

51%chance

37

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

May 2, 1:02 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What is the best single financial market proxy for which party wins the White House in 2024?

Mar 1, 1:48 AM

00

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