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Prediction markets for Public AI

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.54%chance

2730466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

29302

3425

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Sep 28, 8:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.74%chance

502900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2431

1289

Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?

Jun 25, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.52%chance

162071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2030

493

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?

Jun 1, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

11817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

571

AI to solve "Sparse Adversarial Perturbations" from HCAST-Public by 2027?

Mar 25, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.71%chance

20594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

626

100

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

Aug 27, 3:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

73.99%chance

18371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

921

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.34%chance

4354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

948

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

36.05%chance

16203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

977

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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