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Prediction markets for Public AI

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.52%chance

1718130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17131

5858

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?

Jul 10, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.08%chance

324166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

935

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Sep 28, 8:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.7%chance

492899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2435

1288

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

AI to solve "Sparse Adversarial Perturbations" from HCAST-Public by 2027?

Mar 25, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.71%chance

20594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

In the end of 2028, will the public generally accept that talking with AI Girlfriends is cheating?

Dec 18, 1:31 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.98%chance

18410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

969

Will a weakly general AI become publicly known before 2030?

Mar 19, 11:06 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

77.57%chance

22404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1189

922

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

Aug 27, 3:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

74.52%chance

16296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

940

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.98%chance

14110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

979

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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