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By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

53.53%chance

6012930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

948

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

35.57%chance

335843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

743

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15357

6512

will 2026 bring a offical breakthrough in the Kurt Cobain death investigation?

Feb 11, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.5%chance

132453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

28

Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Jun 1, 11:51 PMJan 1, 12:50 AM

32.15%chance

71909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will any company be GDPR fined for inputting personally identifiable information into ChatGPT before 2030?

Feb 9, 2:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

60.48%chance

9235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

122

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?

May 12, 10:15 AMAug 2, 10:00 PM

51.03%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

62

Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?

Apr 24, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.37%chance

216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.63%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

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