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Prediction markets for Public Issue Rules

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

66.88%chance

6313748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

793

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

6.58%chance

3811521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3767

265

will 2026 bring a offical breakthrough in the Kurt Cobain death investigation?

Feb 11, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.5%chance

132453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

28

Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Jun 1, 11:51 PMJan 1, 12:50 AM

31.01%chance

71911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will a gag order be issued on Fani Willis limiting mentioning the Trump election interference case in public?

Mar 15, 8:34 PMJan 20, 6:59 AM

8.82%chance

13611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

874

130

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?

Apr 24, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.37%chance

216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.63%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

When will the Supreme Court of Canada decide a case on Aboriginal title and private property rights?

Apr 25, 3:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

2028

2026

2027

2029

2030

2031 or later

31

14

14

14

14

14

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