Public Issue Rules News

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

45%chance

6012466

OptionVotes

YES

1187

785

What happened to missing Air Force General, William Neil McCasland?

Mar 14, 4:02 AMMay 13, 2:56 AM

92581

OptionProbability

No answers resolve by resolution date (5/12/26)

He is dead, due to suicide

He is dead or incapacitated, due to an unintentional medical mishap or injury

He was murdered

He got lost while on a walk or hike

He was abducted or killed by a non-government associated individual or group

The disappearance is related to UFO/UAP knowledge or theories

He was abducted or killed by individuals following an official or unofficial action of the US Government

He was abducted or killed by individuals following an official or unofficial action of a foreign government

He is alive and well, but choosing to remain hidden

Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Jun 1, 11:51 PMJan 1, 12:50 AM

32.15%chance

71909

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

284

FDA Oversight of laboratory tests will be substantially approved by mid 2026

Dec 4, 10:56 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5%chance

3248

OptionVotes

YES

299

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

Will Trump publicly disparage Chief Justice John Roberts during his second term?

Feb 27, 6:44 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

81.81%chance

9199

OptionVotes

YES

212

Will the Virginia Supreme Court uphold the April 21 redistricting referendum and overturn the Tazewell County ruling?

Apr 27, 5:50 PMDec 31, 6:49 PM

65.97%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

133

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

102

100

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.63%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

Public Issue Rules News

Prediction markets for Public Issue Rules

Prediction markets for Public Issue Rules

Prediction markets for Public Issue Rules

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

What happened to missing Air Force General, William Neil McCasland?

Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

FDA Oversight of laboratory tests will be substantially approved by mid 2026

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Will Trump publicly disparage Chief Justice John Roberts during his second term?

Will the Virginia Supreme Court uphold the April 21 redistricting referendum and overturn the Tazewell County ruling?

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

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