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Prediction markets for Public Issue Rules

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.32%chance

5110194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

902

Israel committing genocide according to ICC or ICJ by end of 2025?

Aug 5, 1:21 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

1.19%chance

579440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

910

11

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Oct 26, 11:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1306

OptionProbability

Above 500

Below 0 - IE No Report Issued by Jan 1, 2027

0 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200 - 249

300 - 349

350 - 399

400 - 449

450 - 500

250 - 299

17

15

14

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will any company be GDPR fined for inputting personally identifiable information into ChatGPT before 2030?

Feb 9, 2:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

60.48%chance

9235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

122

Will a gag order be issued on Fani Willis limiting mentioning the Trump election interference case in public?

Mar 15, 8:34 PMJan 20, 6:59 AM

20.33%chance

12223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

486

190

Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Jun 1, 11:51 PMJan 1, 12:50 AM

28.29%chance

5197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will Trump publicly disparage Chief Justice John Roberts during his second term?

Feb 27, 6:44 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

79.53%chance

8174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

197

51

If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?

Oct 26, 4:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

67.46%chance

9147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

Sep 30, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:58 AM

49.18%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will public officials be barred from blocking people on Facebook in Supreme Court case O’Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier?

Nov 8, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.36%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

63

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

FDA Oversight of laboratory tests will be substantially approved by mid 2026

Dec 4, 10:56 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56.66%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

77

64

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