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Prediction markets for Public Issue Rules

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

37.47%chance

5511514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

660

Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Jun 1, 11:51 PMJan 1, 12:50 AM

32.15%chance

71909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

Sep 30, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:58 AM

75.79%chance

9335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

57

How many UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon) Incidents will US-AARO acknowledge for 2025

Oct 26, 11:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1306

OptionProbability

Above 500

Below 0 - IE No Report Issued by Jan 1, 2027

0 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200 - 249

300 - 349

350 - 399

400 - 449

450 - 500

250 - 299

17

15

14

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will any company be GDPR fined for inputting personally identifiable information into ChatGPT before 2030?

Feb 9, 2:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

60.48%chance

9235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

122

Will a gag order be issued on Fani Willis limiting mentioning the Trump election interference case in public?

Mar 15, 8:34 PMJan 20, 6:59 AM

20.33%chance

12223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

486

190

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.66%chance

6187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

Will Trump publicly disparage Chief Justice John Roberts during his second term?

Feb 27, 6:44 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

78.67%chance

8179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

52

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Labour rules out Nz First for 2026 nz election?

Dec 23, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

84

FDA Oversight of laboratory tests will be substantially approved by mid 2026

Dec 4, 10:56 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56.66%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

77

64

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