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Prediction markets for Public Issue Rules

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.76%chance

2426325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32266

3099

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

53.3%chance

6313398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

943

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

7.83%chance

3811220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3430

292

will 2026 bring a offical breakthrough in the Kurt Cobain death investigation?

Feb 11, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.5%chance

132453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

28

If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?

Oct 26, 4:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25%chance

13484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will Trump publicly disparage Chief Justice John Roberts during his second term?

Feb 27, 6:44 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

81.81%chance

9199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

47

Labour rules out Nz First for 2026 nz election?

Dec 23, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

82

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

When will the Supreme Court of Canada decide a case on Aboriginal title and private property rights?

Apr 25, 3:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

2028

2026

2027

2029

2030

2031 or later

31

14

14

14

14

14

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

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