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Prediction markets for Public Phase

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

143188915

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

91

3

1

1

1

1

1

0

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.75%chance

48190222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7361

4947

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.31%chance

19736834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2352

425

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Feb 27, 9:20 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

93.15%chance

9911535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4224

443

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.22%chance

2411283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11978

1115

Complete Epstein files released before GTA 6 launch?

Nov 7, 12:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 AM

29.79%chance

378705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

653

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

92218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

7494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

855

How many nuclear reactors will Spain have in 2028?

May 3, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11407

OptionProbability

6

7

Below 6

Above 7

36

27

25

4

[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?

Oct 12, 10:28 PMJun 2, 9:00 AM

15.79%chance

5156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

69

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