Public Sale News

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

Nov 30, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.34%chance

313707

OptionVotes

YES

1003

768

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

May 22, 3:54 PMJun 30, 3:49 PM

383364

OptionProbability

Will have a battery

Requires a network connection

Has a microphone

Can play music from Spotify

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Has a camera

US retail price <= $300 on launch

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st December 2027

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Is wearable

Has any screen

Has notification LEDs

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Cancelled before put on general sale

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st January 2026

What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?

Mar 16, 10:57 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

3.73%chance

213145

OptionProbability

YES

3461

685

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.83%chance

202800

OptionVotes

YES

2870

348

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

92218

OptionVotes

YES

3000

333

US municipality or state taxes sugary drinks as much or more than hard liquor before 2034.

May 21, 1:35 PMMay 28, 3:59 PM

15.49%chance

61705

OptionVotes

YES

2336

428

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.35%chance

211414

OptionVotes

YES

1268

789

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

Jan 14, 8:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.65%chance

381339

OptionVotes

YES

1427

726

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Jan 23, 6:04 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

34.33%chance

13898

OptionVotes

YES

1383

723

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

YES

1375

730

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

1515

660

Public Sale News

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

US municipality or state taxes sugary drinks as much or more than hard liquor before 2034.

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Latest stories