Public Sale News

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.08%chance

483902

OptionVotes

YES

2224

404

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

Nov 30, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.34%chance

313707

OptionVotes

YES

1003

768

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

May 22, 3:54 PMMar 31, 3:49 PM

353097

OptionProbability

Will have a battery

Requires a network connection

Has a microphone

Can play music from Spotify

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Has a camera

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Is wearable

Has notification LEDs

Has any screen

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

US retail price <= $300 on launch

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st January 2026

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

152431

OptionVotes

YES

2680

373

US municipality or state taxes sugary drinks as much or more than hard liquor before 2034.

May 21, 1:35 PMMay 28, 3:59 PM

15.49%chance

61705

OptionVotes

YES

2336

428

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.62%chance

71465

OptionVotes

YES

2417

414

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

Jan 14, 8:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.32%chance

371318

OptionVotes

YES

1476

705

Will meat be banned in the UK by 2030?

May 25, 5:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.66%chance

281054

OptionVotes

YES

1522

939

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Jan 23, 6:04 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

34.99%chance

12878

OptionVotes

YES

1363

734

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

1271

787

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

1334

752

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

1515

660

Public Sale News

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

US municipality or state taxes sugary drinks as much or more than hard liquor before 2034.

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

Will meat be banned in the UK by 2030?

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

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