Public Sale News

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

Nov 30, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.34%chance

313707

OptionVotes

YES

1003

768

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

May 22, 3:54 PMMar 31, 3:49 PM

373269

OptionProbability

Will have a battery

Requires a network connection

Has a microphone

Can play music from Spotify

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Has a camera

US retail price <= $300 on launch

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Is wearable

Has notification LEDs

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Has any screen

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st January 2026

What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?

Mar 16, 10:57 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

3.73%chance

213145

OptionProbability

YES

3461

685

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

2886

346

US municipality or state taxes sugary drinks as much or more than hard liquor before 2034.

May 21, 1:35 PMMay 28, 3:59 PM

15.49%chance

61705

OptionVotes

YES

2336

428

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.62%chance

71465

OptionVotes

YES

2417

414

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

Jan 14, 8:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.32%chance

371318

OptionVotes

YES

1476

705

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Jan 23, 6:04 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

34.99%chance

12878

OptionVotes

YES

1363

734

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

1271

787

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

1334

752

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

1515

660

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

YES

1051

819

Public Sale News

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Prediction markets for Public Sale

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

US municipality or state taxes sugary drinks as much or more than hard liquor before 2034.

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

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