Pulitzer News

Israeli Airstrike at Al-Shifa Hospital Kills Pulitzer-Winning Al Jazeera Correspondent Anas al-Sharif and Five Journalists, Drawing UN Condemnation

1 year ago

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

4033889

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.38%chance

3411193

OptionVotes

YES

8143

1543

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?

May 24, 1:01 AMMay 31, 6:59 AM

19.08%chance

365090

OptionVotes

YES

2059

486

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?

Mar 12, 7:22 AMFeb 2, 1:29 PM

22.35%chance

321883

OptionVotes

YES

188

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

1153

1050

Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2030?

Mar 23, 1:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.39%chance

141027

OptionVotes

YES

1917

825

Will GPT (or another AI) be awarded a Pulitzer Prize by 2028?

Feb 29, 2:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.14%chance

28672

OptionVotes

YES

1450

891

Will @Bitfinexed win the Pulitzer Prize by 2034?

Mar 20, 12:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.03%chance

6297

OptionVotes

YES

382

Will Walter Duranty's Pulitzer Prize be revoked before 2040?

Mar 12, 4:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.26%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

140

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Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2030?

Will GPT (or another AI) be awarded a Pulitzer Prize by 2028?

Will @Bitfinexed win the Pulitzer Prize by 2034?

Will Walter Duranty's Pulitzer Prize be revoked before 2040?

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