Puppeteer News

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6361665

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

19231439

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Who will control Gaza 6 months after the war and how?

Oct 29, 5:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

785388

OptionProbability

Israel, occupation

Hamas, with significantly reduced control (including significant loss of territory)

Other

Israel, annexed

PLO (Fatah), as part of the Palestinian authority

Hamas, status quo

Other Anti-Israel Palestinian regime

Arab puppet regime

Hamas, significantly increased control (no blockade, anything up to independence)

Who will win the war in Ukraine?

May 4, 1:09 AMApr 21, 5:59 AM

504343

OptionProbability

Russia partial win

Ukraine

Russia

Ukraiane gains territory

Russia Nukes Ukraine

The world ends

What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)?

Oct 31, 4:20 PMDec 23, 9:59 PM

363280

OptionProbability

Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank

Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out

Install a puppet government

Permanently cut gaza in half, occupy the North

Other

Get bogged down in a stalemate

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.28%chance

712780

OptionVotes

YES

1737

971

will Russia win the war in Ukraine

Nov 6, 3:41 PMJul 14, 3:59 AM

48.88%chance

171734

OptionVotes

YES

1023

978

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

281607

OptionVotes

YES

1751

881

Is Kim Dotcom a Russian agent?

Feb 2, 8:23 PMFeb 6, 11:59 PM

50.62%chance

251255

OptionVotes

YES

1108

875

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Nov 25, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.82%chance

16380

OptionVotes

YES

1038

934

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053?

Apr 7, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.46%chance

598

OptionVotes

YES

130

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(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Who will control Gaza 6 months after the war and how?

Who will win the war in Ukraine?

What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)?

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

will Russia win the war in Ukraine

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Is Kim Dotcom a Russian agent?

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053?

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