Puppets News

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20037688

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Jan 22, 7:34 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

37.06%chance

8013858

OptionVotes

YES

1021

973

Who will win the war in Ukraine?

May 4, 1:09 AMApr 21, 5:59 AM

504352

OptionProbability

Russia partial win

Ukraine

Russia

Ukraiane gains territory

Russia Nukes Ukraine

The world ends

What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)?

Oct 31, 4:20 PMDec 28, 9:59 PM

413594

OptionProbability

Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank

Other

Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out

Install a puppet government

Permanently cut gaza in half, occupy the North

Get bogged down in a stalemate

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

YES

1725

976

will Russia win the war in Ukraine

Nov 6, 3:41 PMJul 14, 3:59 AM

40.29%chance

272726

OptionVotes

YES

1219

823

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.88%chance

352392

OptionVotes

YES

1355

256

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Nov 25, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

53.3%chance

17390

OptionVotes

YES

1029

944

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053?

Apr 7, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

6114

OptionVotes

YES

145

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(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Who will win the war in Ukraine?

What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)?

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

will Russia win the war in Ukraine

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053?

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