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Prediction markets for PURPOSE

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.06%chance

314891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3493

594

Will there be evidence of Tadej Pogacar using carbon monoxide for doping purposes by 2026?

Jul 19, 9:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.56%chance

153755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4573

219

When will a nuclear weapon be used for military purposes?

Aug 3, 8:09 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

121668

OptionProbability

Not before 2101

2041–2050

2031–2035

2051–2060

2036–2040

2028-2030

2061–2070

2071–2080

2081–2090

2091–2100

2026–2027

2023

2024

2025

15

13

9

9

8

7

7

7

7

7

6

1

1

1

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.36%chance

391532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

485

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.65%chance

281187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

890

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?

Jun 10, 5:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

5516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

662

By what date will at least one state-of-the-art general-purpose AI system not be a reasoning model?

Oct 10, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:23 AM

3249

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

72

69

66

59

55

51

44

38

0

Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.2%chance

4131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

811

Will Eliezer be annoyed If I @ him for the purpose of resolving a manifold market?

Oct 29, 10:15 AMNov 30, 10:09 AM

22.58%chance

8116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will "The purposeful drunkard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 7, 6:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

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