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Prediction markets for PURPOSE

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.06%chance

314891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3493

594

Will there be evidence of Tadej Pogacar using carbon monoxide for doping purposes by 2026?

Jul 19, 9:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.82%chance

143205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4023

249

When will a nuclear weapon be used for military purposes?

Aug 3, 8:09 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

111568

OptionProbability

Not before 2101

2041–2050

2031–2035

2051–2060

2036–2040

2026–2027

2028-2030

2061–2070

2071–2080

2081–2090

2091–2100

2023

2024

2025

23

12

8

8

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

1

1

1

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26%chance

381527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

480

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.65%chance

281187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

890

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?

Jun 10, 5:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

35.09%chance

3366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

735

By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?

Oct 10, 10:56 AMJan 1, 11:23 AM

2265

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.01.2029

01.07.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

59

54

52

41

34

25

17

15

0

Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.2%chance

4131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

811

Will "The purposeful drunkard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 7, 6:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will the purposely unclaimed Bir Tawil territory between Egypt and Sudan be claimed by at least one country by EOY 2040?

Dec 5, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.72%chance

1047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

187

156

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