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PURPOSE News

Will there be evidence of Tadej Pogacar using carbon monoxide for doping purposes by 2026?

Jul 19, 9:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.82%chance

143205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4023

249

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26%chance

381527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

480

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.49%chance

271422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

898

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.65%chance

281187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

890

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?

Jun 10, 5:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

35.09%chance

3366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

735

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

144

Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.2%chance

4131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

811

G7 country manages three years of 6% growth before general-purpose robots

May 19, 12:18 PMJan 19, 1:18 PM

25%chance

5128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will the purposely unclaimed Bir Tawil territory between Egypt and Sudan be claimed by at least one country by EOY 2040?

Dec 5, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.72%chance

1047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

187

156

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