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PURPOSE News

If I'm alive by 2026, will I believe it is due to personal enjoyment of living or altruistic purposes

Jun 20, 5:45 PMJan 1, 5:01 AM

31.12%chance

234630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

423

Will there be evidence of Tadej Pogacar using carbon monoxide for doping purposes by 2026?

Jul 19, 9:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.82%chance

143205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4023

249

Bureau of Labor Statistics public reports manipulated for political purposes by end of 2025

Feb 5, 2:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.09%chance

202965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

703

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.73%chance

371415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1694

505

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.06%chance

261414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

890

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.65%chance

281187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

890

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?

Jun 10, 5:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

35.94%chance

3341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

749

Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.2%chance

4131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

811

Will "Skills from a year of Purposeful Rationality ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 19, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.54%chance

3115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

527

Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

147

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