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Prediction markets for PURPOSE

If I'm alive by 2026, will I believe it is due to personal enjoyment of living or altruistic purposes

Jun 20, 5:45 PMJan 1, 5:01 AM

30.52%chance

214493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1641

415

Will there be evidence of Tadej Pogacar using carbon monoxide for doping purposes by 2026?

Jul 19, 9:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.08%chance

142805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3623

276

Bureau of Labor Statistics public reports manipulated for political purposes by end of 2025

Feb 5, 2:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.62%chance

182225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

680

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.73%chance

371415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1694

505

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.06%chance

261414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

890

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61%chance

111201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

984

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.65%chance

281187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

890

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

When will a nuclear weapon be used for military purposes?

Aug 3, 8:09 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

7499

OptionProbability

Not before 2101

2025

2041–2050

2031–2035

2036–2040

2024

2026–2027

2028-2030

2051–2060

2061–2070

2071–2080

2081–2090

2091–2100

2023

21

13

9

7

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

1

Will "Skills from a year of Purposeful Rationality ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 19, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.54%chance

3115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

527

Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?

Jun 10, 5:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

45.98%chance

386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

923

Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.28%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

761

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